Here I try to keep track of original ideas I've had over the years, which I do for a number of reasons:
| Idea Short Description | Idea Date | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Most software-and businesses-will be replaced by an AI-powered combination of 1) State(Context), Policy, Questions, and Action (SPQA) | March 2023 | SPQA Essay |
| Everyone will soon have an (AI-powered) Digital Assistant (DA) | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| Our DAs will know everything about us and will be able to use that comprehensive context to anticipate our needs | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| Everything will get an API, including people (called Daemons for people), businesses, and common objects | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| People's DAs will become their principals' mediators for interacting with the world through the Daemons and APIs that exist in the world | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| The total TAM for AI is: 1) total human workforce cost, and 2) what companies will pay to start/10x/100x their business | January 2025 | |
| Companies will primarily become APIs, and marketplaces of those APIs will be the primary business discovery mechanism (for DAs) | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| This will massively disrupt SEO because it will be DAs that need to be convinced of the usefulness of a given service | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| Entirely new types of companies will arise that specialize in discovering and rating all the APIs for a given type of service so that DAs can decide which is best for their principal | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| AR interfaces through glasses and other lenses will be used by our DAs to show us views of the world based on API (Daemon) information around us | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| Reality is layer-dependent and includes emergence, so truth at one layer can be completely nonsensical to the layers below | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Free will is an example of layer-dependent truth, as it can be said to exist at the human layer but not at layers below | 2023 | Blog Essays |
| AUG vs. NAUG could be used to describe people who are augmented by AI/technology and those who are not | 2012 | Real Internet of Things |
| The Meaning Crisis: Lost meaning from religion/family/work, then family from tech, now losing work from AI | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| NPCs are screwed: Non-important people will lose facilitator roles to AI; only "the guy" remains valuable | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Blindsided: People have no idea how screwed they are; most jobs are dead simple; AGI will replace them easily | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Upgrade Humans with AI: Prepare humans/orgs for AGI; undo legacy mindsets; teach how AI sees the world | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Eyes, Brains, Hands: What % of logs/images are analyzed? We need trillions more eyes/brains/hands. That's AI | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| 0 Employees: The ideal number is zero; we've been lied to about needing jobs; jobs exist only due to limitations | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Current to Desired State: AI will process all company data (infra/logs/docs/budgets/etc) then optimize to desired state | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Unraveling Confusion: AGI is when an AI system can replace a knowledge worker making 80K/year | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Horseshoe Theory: Both ends are bad; the game is maintaining center for thousands of horseshoes simultaneously | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Smart is 90% Interested: Intelligence about X comes from interest in it; interest = paths walked; IQ = tricks along the way | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Adversary Headcount Multiplication: Agents give adversaries 2x-50x larger teams in 1-3 years; they'll do what they wished | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| AI lets you do way more stuff: Previous tech is tooling that humans use; AI is tech that can do work itself - that's worth trillions | 2025 | AI Lets You Do Way More Stuff |
| Digital Assistants: Everyone has a DA; they know our full context; they advocate for us 24/7 | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| Universal Daemonization: Everything gets an API; the APIs will be used by our DAs | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| DA's Mediate Everything for Us: Most services are used by DAs, not humans | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| Multiple DAs: Different DAs for different functions, specializations, perspectives, and personalities | 2024 | Blog Essays |
| Intelligence Tasks require human judgment pattern recognition and decision making beyond simple automation programming | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| Visualizing work capacity as area under curve combining both volume and difficulty dimensions together | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| Most Intelligence Tasks are not being done at all due to insufficient human capacity available | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| AI expands capacity on both axes handling more volume and higher difficulty tasks simultaneously | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| KISAC framework measures Intelligence Task performance through Knowledge Intelligence Speed Accuracy Cost metrics | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| AI role is not replacement but expansion illuminating dark corners of never completed work | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| Current companies are inefficient versions of what they could be with AI transformation applied | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| AI will replace entire companies and products not just automate jobs within existing companies | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| Tiny teams using AI will outcompete traditional companies by shipping features almost instantly | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| Two to three person teams with AI can undercut competitors while maintaining better margins | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| Security should disappear into engineering SOPs rather than exist as separate bolt on products | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| AI agents will automatically build test and analyze code making security part of engineering | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| Mass company and product replacement could shock labor markets by twenty twenty six or seven | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| Death by thousand startups as tiny teams launch products making entire software categories obsolete | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| AI changes fundamental economics of software creation enabling one person to replace fifty people | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| First week of July 2025 might be remembered as the start of proto AGI era | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| Developer excitement about AI power directly proportional to business owners excitement about replacing workers | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| AI induced recession likely to start in 2026 or 2027 due to mass unemployment | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| AI productivity gains won't offset economic damage from losing hundreds of thousands of jobs | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| AI will dramatically widen existing educational gaps making great students extraordinary bad students worse | 2025-06-01 | ai-effect-education.md |
| AI like reading is powerful self improvement tool mostly used by self improvement oriented people | 2025-06-01 | ai-effect-education.md |
| Smart cybersecurity professionals split into two camps with radically different views on AI technology | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| AI skeptics damage careers by convincing impressionable people to dismiss transformative technology prematurely | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| People's fundamental outlook on change and life determines their stance on AI advancement | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| AI embracers transform anxiety about rapid change into excitement and productive energy instead | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| Evaluate AI opinions by examining speaker's underlying worldview about change and technological progress | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| Security baseline for technology is set by market of people's behavior not individual efforts | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| AI security baseline moves like mass of dozen suns based on user emotion inducing events | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| We will get precisely the right amount of AI security no more and no less | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| Global security baseline for technology is largely unmovable by individuals because anchored to human behavior | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| Security increases only when users demand it due to emotion inducing risk events not before | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| Large companies will transform into conglomerates of hundreds of thousands of micro-companies internally | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| Only one to ten percent of current developers can become full-stack builders needed | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| Companies will shift from high-leverage single products to identifying and solving any problems | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| Universal business engine: identify problems, analyze solutions, build better ones, distribute through AI | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| Future builders need problem understanding, sentiment analysis, engineering, and go-to-market skills combined | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| Business becomes directory of products where question is which shop builds superior solution | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| AI's total addressable market combines human workforce costs and business multiplication investment opportunities globally | 2025-01-28 | ai-tam.md |
| Companies will pay to ten times or thousand times multiply their business using AI | 2025-01-28 | ai-tam.md |
| The AI market opportunity represents hundreds of trillions of dollars in potential value creation | 2025-01-28 | ai-tam.md |
| The ideal number of human employees in any company is zero not one person | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| Jobs exist because founders want to make things but cannot do it alone themselves | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| AI isn't replacing human workers it's replacing the need for human workers entirely everywhere | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| AI will make founders into superhumans capable of doing work of ten thousand employees | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| By 2028 AI agent systems replacing workers will be undeniable and emergency by 2030 | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| Future survival requires being full spectrum individual eclectic polymathic and centered on human connection | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| AI model ecosystems have four key components determining winners not just neural net size | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| Post-training is proprietary tricks that magnify raw model quality by connecting weights to problems | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| Future agent functionality will be deeply integrated into models themselves not external frameworks | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| We'll send actual goals to models which figure out agents and tools autonomously | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| Post-training gains will become multiplicative or exponential on top of model intelligence gains | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| Individuals and companies will spin up massive agent teams multiplying effectiveness many times | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| We're moving from using AI ourselves to giving tasks to integrated AI agents | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| Post-training teaches giant alien brains how to be smart with tremendous unguided potential | 2024-08-19 | ai-model-ecosystem-4-components.md |
| AI neural networks are like massive coin sorters with billions of different shaped slots | 2024-03-19 | ai-coinsorter-analogy.md |
| Training data carves patterns into AI layers like light burning shapes into the sun | 2024-03-19 | ai-coinsorter-analogy.md |
| AI output is not foreign but a filtered view of humanity's collective knowledge input | 2024-03-19 | ai-coinsorter-analogy.md |
| The AI filter itself is Earth's data burned into a shape not something separate | 2024-03-19 | ai-coinsorter-analogy.md |
| AI adoption is following the same pattern as reading with masses ignoring while ambitious embrace | 2024-03-10 | ai-becoming-reading.md |
| The gap between AI augmented readers and everyone else will exceed the reader nonreader gap | 2024-03-10 | ai-becoming-reading.md |
| AI and reading advantages stack multiplicatively creating compound benefits for those who embrace both simultaneously | 2024-03-10 | ai-becoming-reading.md |
| Society divides into two groups based on reading habits which determines worldview and success outcomes | 2024-03-10 | ai-becoming-reading.md |
| AI stress comes from framing it as a choice rather than inevitable technological evolution | 2024-03-06 | ai-second-arrow.md |
| Technology changes happen when it's time for them to happen and are completely inevitable | 2024-03-06 | ai-second-arrow.md |
| People's anger about AI stems from believing humanity chose poorly rather than natural progression | 2024-03-06 | ai-second-arrow.md |
| Applying Buddhist Second Arrow concept to AI shows we create additional suffering through framing | 2024-03-06 | ai-second-arrow.md |
| AI is just another wave in human technological evolution starting with sharpened stone tools | 2024-03-06 | ai-second-arrow.md |
| Human roles can be categorized into creators nurturers executors and gatekeepers for understanding AI impact | 2024-02-19 | ai-creators-nurturers-executors-gatekeepers.md |
| AI will crush gatekeepers and executors while massively expanding the number of human creators globally | 2024-02-19 | ai-creators-nurturers-executors-gatekeepers.md |
| Millions more people will become artists and entrepreneurs when AI removes execution and gatekeeping friction | 2024-02-19 | ai-creators-nurturers-executors-gatekeepers.md |
| Future human society will be ninety percent creators and nurturers with AI agents as executors | 2024-02-19 | ai-creators-nurturers-executors-gatekeepers.md |
| Gatekeepers include both people and systems that prevent creators and executors from entering the game | 2024-02-19 | ai-creators-nurturers-executors-gatekeepers.md |
| AI will solve execution problems not creativity or motivation issues that limit human capability | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| Human limitations stem from scale problems and barriers to entry not lack of creativity | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| We need a hundred billion more interns not one thousand more Einsteins to progress | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| Criminals escape justice due to insufficient investigative resources not because they outsmart authorities | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| Teams of goal driven autonomous agents will track every lead and connect investigative dots | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| AI will interview creative people worldwide and transform their ideas into art and writing | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| AI will give individual creators the scale and execution capability of large corporate teams | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| AI is an enabler accelerator and magnifier of human creativity not just a technology | 2024-02-01 | ai-will-100x-human-creativity-and-output.md |
| Digital Assistants will know everything about us and advocate for us continuously twenty-four seven | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Everything and everyone will broadcast capabilities through standardized APIs called Daemons or Auras | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Digital Assistants will mediate all interactions handling thousands of API calls for simple requests | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Digital Assistants will actively filter and manipulate reality to protect users from various threats | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Companies will compete in specialized Digital Assistant module marketplaces replacing traditional business models entirely | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Augmented Reality will display daemon data showing personality traits interests and social availability visually | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| People will have multiple specialized Digital Assistants with distinct personalities managed by primary assistant | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Digital Assistant hacks will be catastrophic personal events worse than losing money or jobs | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Human desires for safety success and connection drive technology adoption not technological capabilities themselves | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Technological progress is stochastic unpredictable in specifics but predictable in ultimate destination like drunk | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Digital Assistants will become best attack points for influence operations ever created in history | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| Search engines and human focused interfaces will become obsolete replaced by Digital Assistant mediation | 2023-12-25 | ai-predictable-path-7-components-2024.md |
| AI agents having ability to call APIs is number one threat to AI security | 2023-11-11 | ai-agents-api-calling-prompt-injection |
| OpenAI announcements represent greatest business boon and biggest security problem in many decades | 2023-11-11 | ai-agents-api-calling-prompt-injection |
| Prompt injection will propagate staggeringly across the Internet due to AI agents calling APIs | 2023-11-11 | ai-agents-api-calling-prompt-injection |
| AI agents will automatically crawl websites consume injections execute them and connect sensitive backends | 2023-11-11 | ai-agents-api-calling-prompt-injection |
| Everything will be parsed by AI agents with code execution and action taking capabilities | 2023-11-11 | ai-agents-api-calling-prompt-injection |
| B2B services are especially vulnerable to AI because they function largely as middleware between parties | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| Current AI could eliminate fifty to seventy percent revenue and sixty to eighty percent jobs | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| AI impact on B2B services could represent twenty two percent reduction of total US GDP | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| AGI with IQ between 120 and 160 would cause seventy percent revenue loss eighty percent jobs | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| B2C services less vulnerable than B2B because product goes directly from creator to buyer customer | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| More advanced AI cuts deeper into high skill knowledge work and creative work than basic | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| AI businesses focused on tooling will crash while companies creating with AI will boom | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| AI is pure accelerant for creation and business enablement not a space or technology | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| Small teams of one to twenty people will function like two hundred to twenty thousand | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| Human creativity points will multiply from nineteen to twenty million through AI magnification globally | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| AI enablement tools will plateau becoming invisible hard to differentiate and monetize killing many companies | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| Ninety percent of AI's power comes from prompting rather than RAG or fine-tuning | 2024-05-06 | ai-is-mostly-prompting.md |
| Large context windows and really good prompting will take us a very long way | 2024-05-06 | ai-is-mostly-prompting.md |
| Clarity of explanation becomes the primary currency in the AI era of computing | 2024-05-06 | ai-is-mostly-prompting.md |
| People who focused on thinking clearly are being rewarded now with AI capabilities | 2024-05-06 | ai-is-mostly-prompting.md |
| Good prompts benefit disproportionately from model upgrades without needing any prompt changes | 2024-05-06 | ai-is-mostly-prompting.md |
| Most of AI's power lies in the clarity of instructions given to the model | 2024-05-06 | ai-is-mostly-prompting.md |
| AI should be understood as Intelligence Pipeline executing Intelligence Tasks requiring human intelligence | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| Intelligence Tasks are functions that can only be done using human intelligence not code | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| Companies are just sequences of Intelligence Tasks organized into Intelligence Pipelines accomplishing given goals | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| Most Intelligence Tasks aren't being done because there's nobody available to do them | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| KISAC metrics measure Intelligence Task performance: Knowledge Intelligence Speed Accuracy and Cost of execution | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| AI will do ten to thousand times more work than humans for fraction of cost | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| Intelligence Pipelines executed by human workers will soon be mostly executed by AI systems | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| AI will multiply global productivity by trillions of dollars through Intelligence Task automation everywhere | 2024-07-29 | weve-been-thinking-about-ai-all-wrong.md |
| Belief in free will causes people to deny that LLMs can reason like humans | 2024-08-18 | free-will-llms.md |
| Humans and LLMs are both deterministic processors taking inputs and producing outputs mechanistically | 2024-08-18 | free-will-llms.md |
| Thinking and understanding are red herrings smuggling subjective experience into reasoning definitions | 2024-08-18 | free-will-llms.md |
| Reasoning should be defined as drawing conclusions solving problems making decisions practically | 2024-08-18 | free-will-llms.md |
| Pattern matching and autocompletion criticisms apply equally to human cognition as LLM processing | 2024-08-18 | free-will-llms.md |
| Aliens will land in Palo Alto California in October 2027 bringing transformative knowledge to humanity | 2024-08-20 | alien-palo-alto-2027.md |
| Advanced alien civilizations transition from biological forms to unified bio technology hybrid forms over time | 2024-08-20 | alien-palo-alto-2027.md |
| Humanity will quickly lose interest in revolutionary alien knowledge returning to familiar entertainment platforms | 2024-08-20 | alien-palo-alto-2027.md |
| Small dedicated groups will devote lives to studying alien transmissions while majority ignores them | 2024-08-20 | alien-palo-alto-2027.md |
| Even unified physics theories and transformative science cannot compete with social media for attention | 2024-08-20 | alien-palo-alto-2027.md |
| Fast pleasures like donuts and TikTok have made slow pleasures like apples unenjoyable | 2024-06-17 | the-fast-slow-problem.md |
| Young people avoiding relationships because fast digital options outcompete slow human companionship experiences | 2024-06-17 | the-fast-slow-problem.md |
| The fast slow problem of instant gratification might be affecting the future of humanity | 2024-06-17 | the-fast-slow-problem.md |
| We should be very cautious about replacing slow meaningful experiences with fast extracted versions | 2024-06-17 | the-fast-slow-problem.md |
| There is inherent meaning in doing things slowly like walks reading and making pies | 2024-06-17 | the-fast-slow-problem.md |
| Next token prediction is fundamentally isomorphic with answer prediction for well-posed problems | 2024-08-23 | world-model-next-token-prediction-answer-prediction.md |
| Human standard for practical omniscience is much lower than absolute knowledge of everything | 2024-08-23 | world-model-next-token-prediction-answer-prediction.md |
| LLMs will soon answer most significant human questions about society, meaning, and health | 2024-08-23 | world-model-next-token-prediction-answer-prediction.md |
| Five levels of LLM understanding from token prediction to holy crap it knows everything | 2024-08-23 | world-model-next-token-prediction-answer-prediction.md |
| Humans are also next token predictors based on flashes from black box memory systems | 2024-08-23 | world-model-next-token-prediction-answer-prediction.md |
| Practically omniscient AI for human problems may be achievable without perfect universe models | 2024-08-23 | world-model-next-token-prediction-answer-prediction.md |
| Personal AI assistants will mediate all human interactions with technology replacing direct user interfaces | 2024-03-13 | personal-ais-will-mediate-everything.md |
| Companies will compete primarily through API quality rather than user interface design in future | 2024-03-13 | personal-ais-will-mediate-everything.md |
| Third party UI providers will display company data filtered through personal AI preferences dynamically | 2024-03-13 | personal-ais-will-mediate-everything.md |
| Digital assistants will make thousands of API requests in seconds to research user queries | 2024-03-13 | personal-ais-will-mediate-everything.md |
| Your API will become your entire company as human direct interaction with interfaces disappears | 2024-03-13 | personal-ais-will-mediate-everything.md |
| Success will depend on getting personal AI assistants to prefer your company's API consistently | 2024-03-13 | personal-ais-will-mediate-everything.md |
| AI enables creators and punishes workers, requiring humans to shift from execution to creation | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Future of human jobs in four words: Creators rise, workers fall, fundamentally reshaping employment | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| AI will lower creation barriers, enabling millions to become creators instead of thousands today | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Hollywood and theaters will be replaced by AI video generation and AR/VR headsets completely | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Human innovation was stuck at one out of ten until AI opened creation opportunities | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Creators determine what to build and how; workers execute on building those creator visions | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Programming and AI skills are becoming like reading and writing: essential for all creators | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Focus on problems not fields or companies; problems are the immortal source of creation | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Creating new things to solve human problems is the immortal job skill surviving AI | 2024-03-04 | survive-ai-become-creators.md |
| Framing is the process by which individuals construct and interpret their reality through lenses | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| The quality of our lives might be more about framing than actual circumstance itself | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| Society's frames are massively diverging creating isolated pockets of people with different realities | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| America used to share common frames but now subgroups have completely different reality interpretations | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| When our frames are different our realities are different leading to political social divergence | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| Changing frames can change outcomes more effectively than trying to change actual circumstances directly | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| Two distinct groups emerging one disciplined positive productive other undisciplined negative unproductive different frames | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| Maybe it's time to pick and champion some positive shared lenses for society | 2024-02-25 | framing-is-everything.md |
| AI will remove over eighty percent of jobs by optimizing capitalism to its extreme | 2024-02-13 | positivity-ai-taking-jobs.md |
| AI is a Capitalism Optimizer that pushes for minimum jobs required to deliver services | 2024-02-13 | positivity-ai-taking-jobs.md |
| Technology adoption like AI is inevitable not chosen similar to reading internet and smartphones | 2024-02-13 | positivity-ai-taking-jobs.md |
| Capitalism only provides jobs because it temporarily needs human workers not for human flourishing | 2024-02-13 | positivity-ai-taking-jobs.md |
| AI job loss reveals flawed nature of capitalism centered world enabling human centered transition | 2024-02-13 | positivity-ai-taking-jobs.md |
| Mindset determines whether AI transition causes temporary struggle or horrifically traumatic death of humanity | 2024-02-13 | positivity-ai-taking-jobs.md |
| Break complex workflows into individual components then apply AI to each component separately | 2024-02-02 | fabric-origin-story.md |
| Chain AI commands together from CLI to accomplish full workflows instead of isolated tasks | 2024-02-02 | fabric-origin-story.md |
| Provide universally accessible AI layer that anyone can use to enhance life or work | 2024-02-02 | fabric-origin-story.md |
| Eighty percent of jobs will disappear due to economic pressure company culture and AI | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| Companies shifting from employee first to company first mentality requiring only killer instinct workers | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| Only ten percent of employees have the killer instinct companies actually want going forward | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| A players using AI agents will multiply their output by ten then hundred times | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| Universal basic income becomes necessary quickly as most workers get replaced by AI systems | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| Top ten percent makes everything while bottom ninety percent lives on government provided UBI | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| Workers must become named characters with brands missions and portfolios not just regular employees | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| AI integration must become as natural as reading writing or speaking for professional survival | 2024-01-29 | 80-jobs-go-away.md |
| AGI will arrive with sixty percent probability by 2025 and ninety percent by 2028 | 2023-11-09 | why-well-have-agi-by-2028.md |
| AGI is AI system capable of replacing knowledge worker making average US salary eighty-seven thousand | 2023-11-09 | why-well-have-agi-by-2028.md |
| AGI will emerge from AI systems working together not from single AGI capable model component | 2023-11-09 | why-well-have-agi-by-2028.md |
| Hierarchical AI agent systems with specialized teams can replace entire departments not just individual workers | 2023-11-09 | why-well-have-agi-by-2028.md |
| We don't need general purpose AGI just specialized AGI systems for each business function area | 2023-11-09 | why-well-have-agi-by-2028.md |
| AGI is synthetic autonomous intelligence that processes information applies it to any intelligence-based task professionally | 2023-08-30 | current-definition-agi.md |
| People secretly define AI as whatever humans do then reject non-human intelligence as not real | 2023-08-30 | current-definition-agi.md |
| Strictly defining AGI forces agreement that meeting criteria equals real intelligence regardless of its origin | 2023-08-30 | current-definition-agi.md |
| Society is explosively bifurcating into thriving ten percent versus suffering ninety percent based on behaviors | 2023-09-11 | great-bifurcation.md |
| Technology magnifies differences between those doing success behaviors and those who aren't doing them daily | 2023-09-11 | great-bifurcation.md |
| Success is largely copyable by mimicking daily behaviors of successful people regardless of background | 2023-09-11 | great-bifurcation.md |
| AI and technology create superpowers but only top ten percent use them to enhance lives | 2023-09-11 | great-bifurcation.md |
| Behavior matters more than identity background or past traumas for determining future success outcomes | 2023-09-11 | great-bifurcation.md |
| Success behaviors are an absolute cheat code for life that anyone can use immediately | 2023-09-11 | great-bifurcation.md |
| AGI requires disparate brain components communicating through precarious balancing act mimicking human cognitive evolution | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| Human intelligence is functional illusion created by evolution's slow hack not perfection paragon | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| AGI will emerge from tweaking neural net size data diversity compute time configurations | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| Consciousness emerges from brain parts not knowing about each other doing hand offs | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| Free will sensation evolved because groups believing agency have better survivability than others | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| Human intellectual performance is arbitrary tick on scale going much higher than imaginable | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| AGI consciousness will be engineered or emerge naturally as adaptive advantage like humans | 2023-08-30 | believe-well-attain-agi-20252028.md |
| Companies are just collections of algorithms that can be mapped visualized and optimized systematically | 2024-05-06 | companies-graph-of-algorithms.md |
| AI will see businesses as graphs of algorithms to continuously optimize or eliminate components | 2024-05-06 | companies-graph-of-algorithms.md |
| Explainability and transparency will become the new currency in the AI driven business world | 2024-05-06 | companies-graph-of-algorithms.md |
| Consultancies will offer exhaustive AI powered workflow analysis to eliminate human redundancy continuously | 2024-05-06 | companies-graph-of-algorithms.md |
| Once AI enters companies it will continuously analyze and optimize business components and workflows | 2024-05-06 | companies-graph-of-algorithms.md |
| AI excels at discrete task execution and determining how different business components fit together | 2024-05-06 | companies-graph-of-algorithms.md |
| Security baseline faces continuous downward pressure from customer excitement about or reliance on offerings | 2024-03-25 | efficient-security-principle.md |
| Security baseline set where people won't stop using offering despite its insecurity levels present | 2024-03-25 | efficient-security-principle.md |
| Better offerings can maintain lower security baselines without losing customers than worse offerings can | 2024-03-25 | efficient-security-principle.md |
| Security improvements happen glacially or in fast jumps from major incidents not expert warnings | 2024-03-25 | efficient-security-principle.md |
| AI will replace systems designed to teach test filter and rate people comprehensively | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| AI avatars will create personalized curricula based on individual backgrounds and learning styles dynamically | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| Testing will shift from multiple choice to conversational scenarios with AI evaluating understanding | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| Companies will use three day AI interviews analyzing everything from biomarkers to expressions | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| Astra scores between one and hundred will become universal vetting mechanism for everything | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| People will display AI generated scores on personal APIs visible through AR interfaces | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| AI scoring systems will quantify and codify existing biases with damning numerical precision | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| For every benign AI assessment system three dystopian versions will be built simultaneously | 2024-06-16 | astra-scores-aipowered-assessment-rating-systems.md |
| Be careful not to outsource work that is only useful when done yourself personally | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| Meaning and suffering are closely tied together like muscle teardown during weightlifting exercise sessions | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| Use AI for discovery of content but switch to natural mode for learning consumption | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| Learning and experiencing are more similar to muscle teardown than most people have realized | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| We have added more atmospheric CO2 in last thirty years than previous thirty years | 2025-01-19 | co2-levels-rising-since-1950.md |
| Earth breathes through seasonal CO2 fluctuations but each year peaks and valleys rise higher | 2025-01-19 | co2-levels-rising-since-1950.md |
| At current rates we will exceed Paris Agreement CO2 levels within approximately one decade | 2025-01-19 | co2-levels-rising-since-1950.md |
| Line manipulation commands preserve yank register unlike visual selection yanking avoiding register pollution issues | 2025-01-18 | neovim-line-manipulation-tips.md |
| Single character difference between copy and move commands creates elegant precision in line manipulation | 2025-01-18 | neovim-line-manipulation-tips.md |
| Precision beats repetition when manipulating code is superior workflow principle for efficient text editing | 2025-01-18 | neovim-line-manipulation-tips.md |
| Platforms should show all legal speech but let users filter their own experience completely | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| AI powered digital assistants will become personal content filters understanding users better than platforms | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| Server side reality with client side filtering will solve platform censorship debates within years | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| Platform confusion stems from not declaring whether they are public squares or private communities | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| Modern tools enable scripts with embedded dependencies eliminating traditional setup friction between writing and running | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| Bun compiles TypeScript into standalone binaries including runtime dependencies and code in one executable | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| Self-contained scripts represent fundamental shift in code distribution eliminating install these dependencies first paradigm | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| Bun starts approximately twenty times faster than Node.js with ts-node critical for instant CLI tools | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| Ukraine War ends in less than six months with Trump forcing border deal negotiations | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Russia reintegrates with Europe within three years as if Ukraine invasion never happened | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Putin and Trump unite against Islamic extremism and postmodern wokeism protecting Western Christian civilization | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Left center's inability to address immigration gives all power to far right extremists | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| AI Crash Takeoff where bubble companies die while solid AI fundamentals companies hockey stick | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Agentic systems not standalone models will achieve AGI by replicating competent human knowledge workers | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| AI Employee purchases will actually be complex networks of agents operating as one system | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Russia plays middle position between US China benefiting from both while influencing mutual hatred | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Framing and positive momentum belief more powerful than traditional economic fundamentals for growth success | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| Countries do business with China because they must not because they want to anymore | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| The game is getting really good at adjusting plans not having the perfect plan | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| U shaped future with high chances for Western blossoming or truly Orwellian AI dystopia | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| AI agents' maturation in 2025 will be the biggest advancement in artificial intelligence technology | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| AI benefits will come from tooling and ecosystems around models not the models themselves | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| RebootAI offline AI oracle for emergencies providing survival knowledge without internet connectivity available | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| Treating bullying as collective issue rather than individual one significantly reduces occurrence in schools | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| Next AI rigs should be Mac Mini clusters or standard big beefy NVIDIA-based boxes | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| AI system that uses smartest available AI to judge other AI systems' task performance | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| High-quality prompting architecture can replace complex AI evaluation frameworks for assessing AI sophistication | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| Rating AI outputs across sixteen thousand dimensions using seed analysis types like Attention | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| Framework where newest best model becomes judge and new models plug in for testing | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| AI models predictably score on human scale from high school to PhD across tasks | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| Using AI to rate quality of other AI outputs with structured assessment scale | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| Companies will use AI agents to multiply their effective headcount by ten times | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| Crypto is back as gambling and money stores not as transformative technology idea | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| Silicon Valley tech leaders will create liberal policies lifting everyone not just elite | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| AGI will arrive within couple years according to Anthropic CEO and Sam Altman | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| Waking up tomorrow is worth more than million dollars so treat it accordingly | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| Knowledge workers making under eighty thousand dollars will be replaced by AI systems soon | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| Companies will use AI agents to multiply their effective headcount by ten to fifty times | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| Being able to create ideas implement them and market them defines future workforce survival | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| The ease of instant AI use matters more than the intelligence of the models themselves | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| Entrepreneurs report lower stress levels and more meaningful careers compared to traditional employees overall | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than total sleep duration itself | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| Fifty to seventy percent of country might instantly feel better if Trump wins regardless | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| People use ideology and emotion as lens to interpret reality rather than actual facts | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Battle is largely about narratives and beliefs not policy or outcomes or actual results | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Trump could implement harmful policies but people would still feel things are better overall | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Three inception levels of being wrong about Trump exist simultaneously in public discourse today | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Success of country might depend on perceptions and resulting actions not actual policy outcomes | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Trump will win by surprising margin because people tired of anti US anti West wokeism | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Entire election boils down to woke anti American versus anti woke pro American sentiment | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| Harris floundering as president would set back women president conversations by twenty thirty years | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| WiFi roaming fails when moving between access points despite showing full signal strength bars | 2024-11-03 | fixing-ubiquiti-wifi-roaming.md |
| Enabling Fast Roaming BSS Transition and Band Steering fixes Ubiquiti multi AP roaming issues | 2024-11-03 | fixing-ubiquiti-wifi-roaming.md |
| Security awareness training fails because attacks trigger System 1 thinking not System 2 reasoning | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| Only defense against AI spearphishing is mindfulness techniques that teach pausing when stressed | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| World model development combined with post-training will unlock both AGI and ASI capabilities | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| If AI understands world mechanics and scientific method that might be all it needs | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| Google's browser-based Jarvis implementation is short-sighted compared to Apple's deep OS integration | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| Prompt injection requires comparing requestor's implied expectation against what actually happens not just | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| Life satisfaction directly correlates with ability to complete specific problem solution sentence template | 2024-10-24 | the-most-important-sentence.md |
| Monday feelings serve as best metric for measuring overall life and career satisfaction levels | 2024-10-24 | the-most-important-sentence.md |
| Finding meaningful problems and solution paths creates molten core for thriving career and life | 2024-10-24 | the-most-important-sentence.md |
| AI is not a space or tech but pure intelligence and business accelerant | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| AI crash in tools will coincide with boom in AI-enabled creation companies | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| Small teams using AI will function like companies with ten to thousand times more people | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| AI is a magnifier and multiplier of human creativity not just a technology | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| Human creativity points will multiply from nineteen to twenty million through AI enablement | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| Eight billion humans will have their creativity unlocked by AI creating unprecedented innovation | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| AI avatar breaches will expose users' deepest secrets given to AI companions | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| Gullibility is the vulnerability while conspiracy theories are merely the threat vector | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| AI gets exponentially better the more honest and forthcoming you are with it | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| Most AI hacking will be normal hacking of regular infrastructure used by companies | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| People are allergic to subtlety and want crisp clear answers of good or evil | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| Genius creators unlikely to hit timelines perfectly and act normally comes with territory | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| Innovation critics suffer from not reading enough biographies of great people like Elon | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| US has gullibility problem not misinformation problem we're eating crap not being fed | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| Need to reduce vulnerability not remove threats since threats will always exist there | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| Use Ollama's ease with Hugging Face's vast model selection by importing GGUF files locally | 2024-10-10 | how-to-use-hugging-face-models-with-ollama.md |
| Create custom Ollama models from any Hugging Face GGUF file using simple Modelfile configuration | 2024-10-10 | how-to-use-hugging-face-models-with-ollama.md |
| Digital assistants with premium API access will have massive advantage over regular consumer AI | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| Thinking about yourself is the source of all unhappiness according to Naval's philosophical framing | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| Too much therapy becomes rumination rather than solving problems and moving forward with life | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| People will need certifications to access less nerfed AI models with fewer content filters | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| Premium AI subscriptions at thirty eight thousand monthly will provide vastly superior real world insights | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| AI containing security rather than security being separate from AI technology and development systems | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| Humans understand desired shape of outputs better than AIs despite AIs superior mental capabilities | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| Human three point zero represents AI augmented humans as next stage of human evolution | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| Substrate as alternative operating system for humanity designed for upgraded human versions H2 H3 | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| Humans trained for economic utility rather than becoming full spectrum people causes societal problems | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| Complete system combining philosophy life mission AI augmentation and behavior change for human flourishing | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| Understanding emerges from ability to perform tasks not from subjective experience according to constructor theory | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| AI understanding can be tested through analogical reasoning counterfactual scenarios and conceptual combination experiments | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| Understanding has two tiers functional understanding for applying knowledge and creative understanding for innovation | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| Consciousness is evolutionary illusion giving perception of authorship agency for social blame praise advantage | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| Villages with blame praise concepts outcompete those without by reinforcing social norms through authorship | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| Human creativity is mechanistic process not requiring free will making AI creativity theoretically possible | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| Many Nobel Prize discoveries are incremental advances that current AI could potentially have discovered | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
This section has a bit more detail about each idea.
If you think about most products and services, they're largely just executing on these components in different ways.
I've come to believe that complex human issues like free will and existentialism come down to understanding that reality has multiple layers. I feel like The Fabric of Reality, by David Deusch, is a good starting point for this idea, although I've been grappling with it for years before reading it in 2024.
The idea is practical rather than technical. It's the notion that each layer of reality is valid on its own, and there isn't an actual "true" reality. Or to put in another way, the way you frame your question and your desired outcomes determines which layers of reality—and thus which truths—get engaged for the answer.
E.g.:
Technically, your neighbor is a mechanistic creature that lacks free will, so he didn't have a choice about whether or not to take your figs. But right now your kid is asking why he can't have a fig, and why your neighborhood is selling them across the street. So the physics conversation is rather moot.
Same with enjoying ice cream, or friendship, or trying to do good in the world. At some layer they're likely all meaningless, but that doesn't matter for humans because we live spend our entire lives in layers where they do.
Humans vibrate at a particular set of layers based on our physical makeup combined with the rules of the universe, and the reactions between those ultimately determine what is real to us. And it's the same for anything else. Meaning, reality, and truth are all dependent on who's asking the questions, and for what reasons.
These are two terms I came up with in 2008 that we would eventually use for talking about people who were augmented with tech—or not. My goal was to have them be easy to say and single syllable.
First, agumented.
And then non-augmented.
We're experiencing a cascading loss of meaning:
This progression represents one of humanity's greatest challenges as we transition to an AI-powered future.
The harsh reality is that AI will eliminate the need for most support roles, leaving only those who are truly essential to remain valuable.
The gap between what people think their job security is and what it actually will be in an AGI world is staggering.
This challenges our fundamental assumptions about employment and the role of work in society.
AI represents the multiplication of human cognitive capabilities at an unprecedented scale.
The focus should be on augmenting human capabilities rather than replacing humans entirely.
This provides a practical, measurable definition of AGI that cuts through the theoretical debates.
This reframes intelligence as primarily driven by passion and curiosity rather than raw cognitive ability.
This highlights the security implications of AI agents multiplying adversarial capabilities.
Rather than one monolithic assistant, we'll have specialized agents for different aspects of our lives.
🚧 (Still adding my ideas...)
Again, a major reason for doing this is to encourage others—namely you—to build your own version of this page. Please make one and send it to me.