Here I try to keep track of original ideas I've had over the years, which I do for a number of reasons:
| # | Idea | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The thing that will most slow down AI adoption is inefficiency within companies, and those companies will face strong pressure from those who adopt first. | Business AI |
| 2 | The primary function of AI consulting will be to decompose existing Intelligence Pipelines to understand how the business operates in various departments actually work. From there, automation. | Business AI |
| 3 | The future of hacking and cybersecurity is dueling banjos of the attacker's AI system vs. the defender's AI system. The questions will be, 2) who has the most accurate and realtime world model (state) of the target, and 2) who can best leverage their AI systems to capitalize on or modify that state to further their goals? | Future of Hacking is Context |
| # | Idea | Date | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AI lets you do way more stuff: Previous tech is tooling that humans use; AI is tech that can do work itself - that's worth trillions | 2025-02-21 | AI Lets You Do Way More Stuff |
| 2 | Intelligence Tasks require human judgment pattern recognition and decision making beyond simple automation programming | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| 3 | Visualizing work capacity as area under curve combining both volume and difficulty dimensions together | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| 4 | Most Intelligence Tasks are not being done at all due to insufficient human capacity available | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| 5 | AI expands capacity on both axes handling more volume and higher difficulty tasks simultaneously | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| 6 | KISAC framework measures Intelligence Task performance through Knowledge Intelligence Speed Accuracy Cost metrics | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| 7 | AI role is not replacement but expansion illuminating dark corners of never completed work | 2025-07-21 | ai-workforce-volume-difficulty-curve.md |
| 8 | Current companies are inefficient versions of what they could be with AI transformation applied | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 9 | AI will replace entire companies and products not just automate jobs within existing companies | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 10 | Tiny teams using AI will outcompete traditional companies by shipping features almost instantly | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 11 | Two to three person teams with AI can undercut competitors while maintaining better margins | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 12 | Security should disappear into engineering SOPs rather than exist as separate bolt on products | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 13 | AI agents will automatically build test and analyze code making security part of engineering | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 14 | Death by thousand startups as tiny teams launch products making entire software categories obsolete | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 15 | AI changes fundamental economics of software creation enabling one person to replace fifty people | 2025-07-08 | ai-creative-destruction-wave.md |
| 16 | First week of July 2025 might be remembered as the start of proto AGI era | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| 17 | Developer excitement about AI power directly proportional to business owners excitement about replacing workers | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| 18 | AI productivity gains won't offset economic damage from losing hundreds of thousands of jobs | 2025-07-04 | ai-morose-mania.md |
| 19 | AI will dramatically widen existing educational gaps making great students extraordinary bad students worse | 2025-06-01 | ai-effect-education.md |
| 20 | AI like reading is powerful self improvement tool mostly used by self improvement oriented people | 2025-06-01 | ai-effect-education.md |
| 21 | Smart cybersecurity professionals split into two camps with radically different views on AI technology | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| 22 | AI skeptics damage careers by convincing impressionable people to dismiss transformative technology prematurely | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| 23 | People's fundamental outlook on change and life determines their stance on AI advancement | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| 24 | AI embracers transform anxiety about rapid change into excitement and productive energy instead | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| 25 | Evaluate AI opinions by examining speaker's underlying worldview about change and technological progress | 2025-05-31 | ai-friend-groups.md |
| 26 | Security baseline for technology is set by market of people's behavior not individual efforts | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| 27 | AI security baseline moves like mass of dozen suns based on user emotion inducing events | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| 28 | We will get precisely the right amount of AI security no more and no less | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| 29 | Global security baseline for technology is largely unmovable by individuals because anchored to human behavior | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| 30 | Security increases only when users demand it due to emotion inducing risk events not before | 2025-05-29 | ai-security.md |
| 31 | Large companies will transform into conglomerates of hundreds of thousands of micro-companies internally | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| 32 | Only one to ten percent of current developers can become full-stack builders needed | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| 33 | Companies will shift from high-leverage single products to identifying and solving any problems | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| 34 | Universal business engine: identify problems, analyze solutions, build better ones, distribute through AI | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| 35 | Future builders need problem understanding, sentiment analysis, engineering, and go-to-market skills combined | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| 36 | Business becomes directory of products where question is which shop builds superior solution | 2025-05-06 | ai-solution-factories.md |
| 37 | The total TAM for AI is: 1) total human workforce cost, and 2) what companies will pay to start/10x/100x their business | January 2025 | N/A |
| 38 | AI's total addressable market combines human workforce costs and business multiplication investment opportunities globally | 2025-01-28 | ai-tam.md |
| 39 | Companies will pay to ten times or thousand times multiply their business using AI | 2025-01-28 | ai-tam.md |
| 40 | The AI market opportunity represents hundreds of trillions of dollars in potential value creation | 2025-01-28 | ai-tam.md |
| 41 | Be careful not to outsource work that is only useful when done yourself personally | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| 42 | Meaning and suffering are closely tied together like muscle teardown during weightlifting exercise sessions | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| 43 | Use AI for discovery of content but switch to natural mode for learning consumption | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| 44 | Learning and experiencing are more similar to muscle teardown than most people have realized | 2025-01-22 | fast-vs-slow-ai.md |
| 45 | We have added more atmospheric CO2 in last thirty years than previous thirty years | 2025-01-19 | co2-levels-rising-since-1950.md |
| 46 | Earth breathes through seasonal CO2 fluctuations but each year peaks and valleys rise higher | 2025-01-19 | co2-levels-rising-since-1950.md |
| 47 | Platforms should show all legal speech but let users filter their own experience completely | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| 48 | AI powered digital assistants will become personal content filters understanding users better than platforms | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| 49 | Server side reality with client side filtering will solve platform censorship debates within years | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| 50 | Platform confusion stems from not declaring whether they are public squares or private communities | 2025-01-09 | reality-through-filters.md |
| 51 | Modern tools enable scripts with embedded dependencies eliminating traditional setup friction between writing and running | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| 52 | Bun compiles TypeScript into standalone binaries including runtime dependencies and code in one executable | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| 53 | Self-contained scripts represent fundamental shift in code distribution eliminating install these dependencies first paradigm | 2025-01-08 | executable-typescript-programs-using-bun.md |
| 54 | The ideal number of human employees in any company is zero not one person | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| 55 | Jobs exist because founders want to make things but cannot do it alone themselves | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| 56 | AI isn't replacing human workers it's replacing the need for human workers entirely everywhere | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| 57 | AI will make founders into superhumans capable of doing work of ten thousand employees | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| 58 | Future survival requires being full spectrum individual eclectic polymathic and centered on human connection | 2025-01-06 | ai-founder-augmentation.md |
| 59 | Left center's inability to address immigration gives all power to far right extremists | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 60 | AI Crash Takeoff where bubble companies die while solid AI fundamentals companies hockey stick | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 61 | Agentic systems not standalone models will achieve AGI by replicating competent human knowledge workers | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 62 | AI Employee purchases will actually be complex networks of agents operating as one system | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 63 | Russia plays middle position between US China benefiting from both while influencing mutual hatred | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 64 | Framing and positive momentum belief more powerful than traditional economic fundamentals for growth success | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 65 | Countries do business with China because they must not because they want to anymore | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 66 | The game is getting really good at adjusting plans not having the perfect plan | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 67 | U shaped future with high chances for Western blossoming or truly Orwellian AI dystopia | 2024-11-17 | frontview-mirror-2025-edition.md |
| 68 | AI agents' maturation in 2025 will be the biggest advancement in artificial intelligence technology | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| 69 | AI benefits will come from tooling and ecosystems around models not the models themselves | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| 70 | RebootAI offline AI oracle for emergencies providing survival knowledge without internet connectivity available | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| 71 | Treating bullying as collective issue rather than individual one significantly reduces occurrence in schools | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| 72 | Next AI rigs should be Mac Mini clusters or standard big beefy NVIDIA-based boxes | 2024-11-14 | ul-459.md |
| 73 | AI system that uses smartest available AI to judge other AI systems' task performance | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| 74 | High-quality prompting architecture can replace complex AI evaluation frameworks for assessing AI sophistication | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| 75 | Rating AI outputs across sixteen thousand dimensions using seed analysis types like Attention | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| 76 | Framework where newest best model becomes judge and new models plug in for testing | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| 77 | AI models predictably score on human scale from high school to PhD across tasks | 2024-11-11 | using-the-smartest-ai-to-rate-other-ai.md |
| 78 | Using AI to rate quality of other AI outputs with structured assessment scale | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| 79 | Companies will use AI agents to multiply their effective headcount by ten times | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| 80 | Crypto is back as gambling and money stores not as transformative technology idea | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| 81 | Silicon Valley tech leaders will create liberal policies lifting everyone not just elite | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| 82 | Waking up tomorrow is worth more than million dollars so treat it accordingly | 2024-11-08 | ul-458.md |
| 83 | Knowledge workers making under eighty thousand dollars will be replaced by AI systems soon | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| 84 | Companies will use AI agents to multiply their effective headcount by ten to fifty times | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| 85 | Being able to create ideas implement them and market them defines future workforce survival | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| 86 | The ease of instant AI use matters more than the intelligence of the models themselves | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| 87 | Entrepreneurs report lower stress levels and more meaningful careers compared to traditional employees overall | 2024-11-03 | ul-457.md |
| 88 | People use ideology and emotion as lens to interpret reality rather than actual facts | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| 89 | Battle is largely about narratives and beliefs not policy or outcomes or actual results | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| 90 | Three inception levels of being wrong about Trump exist simultaneously in public discourse today | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| 91 | Success of country might depend on perceptions and resulting actions not actual policy outcomes | 2024-11-03 | final-thoughts-on-the-2024-election.md |
| 92 | Security awareness training fails because attacks trigger System 1 thinking not System 2 reasoning | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| 93 | Only defense against AI spearphishing is mindfulness techniques that teach pausing when stressed | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| 94 | World model development combined with post-training will unlock both AGI and ASI capabilities | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| 95 | If AI understands world mechanics and scientific method that might be all it needs | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| 96 | Google's browser-based Jarvis implementation is short-sighted compared to Apple's deep OS integration | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| 97 | Prompt injection requires comparing requestor's implied expectation against what actually happens not just | 2024-10-26 | ul-456.md |
| 98 | Life satisfaction directly correlates with ability to complete specific problem solution sentence template | 2024-10-24 | the-most-important-sentence.md |
| 99 | Monday feelings serve as best metric for measuring overall life and career satisfaction levels | 2024-10-24 | the-most-important-sentence.md |
| 100 | Finding meaningful problems and solution paths creates molten core for thriving career and life | 2024-10-24 | the-most-important-sentence.md |
| 101 | AI businesses focused on tooling will crash while companies creating with AI will boom | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| 102 | AI is pure accelerant for creation and business enablement not a space or technology | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| 103 | Small teams of one to twenty people will function like two hundred to twenty thousand | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| 104 | Human creativity points will multiply from nineteen to twenty million through AI magnification globally | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| 105 | AI enablement tools will plateau becoming invisible hard to differentiate and monetize killing many companies | 2024-10-23 | ai-isn-t-the-thing-it-s-the-thing-that-enables-the-thing.md |
| 106 | AI is not a space or tech but pure intelligence and business accelerant | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| 107 | AI crash in tools will coincide with boom in AI-enabled creation companies | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| 108 | Small teams using AI will function like companies with ten to thousand times more people | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| 109 | AI is a magnifier and multiplier of human creativity not just a technology | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| 110 | Human creativity points will multiply from nineteen to twenty million through AI enablement | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| 111 | Eight billion humans will have their creativity unlocked by AI creating unprecedented innovation | 2024-10-18 | ul-455.md |
| 112 | AI avatar breaches will expose users' deepest secrets given to AI companions | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 113 | Gullibility is the vulnerability while conspiracy theories are merely the threat vector | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 114 | AI gets exponentially better the more honest and forthcoming you are with it | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 115 | Most AI hacking will be normal hacking of regular infrastructure used by companies | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 116 | People are allergic to subtlety and want crisp clear answers of good or evil | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 117 | Genius creators unlikely to hit timelines perfectly and act normally comes with territory | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 118 | Innovation critics suffer from not reading enough biographies of great people like Elon | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 119 | US has gullibility problem not misinformation problem we're eating crap not being fed | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 120 | Need to reduce vulnerability not remove threats since threats will always exist there | 2024-10-13 | ul-454.md |
| 121 | Digital assistants with premium API access will have massive advantage over regular consumer AI | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| 122 | Thinking about yourself is the source of all unhappiness according to Naval's philosophical framing | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| 123 | Too much therapy becomes rumination rather than solving problems and moving forward with life | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| 124 | People will need certifications to access less nerfed AI models with fewer content filters | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| 125 | Premium AI subscriptions at thirty eight thousand monthly will provide vastly superior real world insights | 2024-10-06 | ul-453.md |
| 126 | AI containing security rather than security being separate from AI technology and development systems | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| 127 | Humans understand desired shape of outputs better than AIs despite AIs superior mental capabilities | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| 128 | Human three point zero represents AI augmented humans as next stage of human evolution | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| 129 | Substrate as alternative operating system for humanity designed for upgraded human versions H2 H3 | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| 130 | Humans trained for economic utility rather than becoming full spectrum people causes societal problems | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| 131 | Complete system combining philosophy life mission AI augmentation and behavior change for human flourishing | 2024-10-04 | how-my-projects-fit-together.md |
| 132 | Understanding emerges from ability to perform tasks not from subjective experience according to constructor theory | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 133 | AI understanding can be tested through analogical reasoning counterfactual scenarios and conceptual combination experiments | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 134 | Understanding has two tiers functional understanding for applying knowledge and creative understanding for innovation | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 135 | Consciousness is evolutionary illusion giving perception of authorship agency for social blame praise advantage | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 136 | Villages with blame praise concepts outcompete those without by reinforcing social norms through authorship | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 137 | Human creativity is mechanistic process not requiring free will making AI creativity theoretically possible | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 138 | Many Nobel Prize discoveries are incremental advances that current AI could potentially have discovered | 2024-10-02 | deutsch-darsa-and-ai.md |
| 139 | B2B services are especially vulnerable to AI because they function largely as middleware between parties | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| 140 | Current AI could eliminate fifty to seventy percent revenue and sixty to eighty percent jobs | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| 141 | AI impact on B2B services could represent twenty two percent reduction of total US GDP | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| 142 | AGI with IQ between 120 and 160 would cause seventy percent revenue loss eighty percent jobs | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| 143 | B2C services less vulnerable than B2B because product goes directly from creator to buyer customer | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| 144 | More advanced AI cuts deeper into high skill knowledge work and creative work than basic | 2023-09-21 | ai-will-likely-crush-b2b-services-economy.md |
| 145 | Digital Assistants: Everyone has a DA; they know our full context; they advocate for us 24/7 | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| 146 | Universal Daemonization: Everything gets an API; the APIs will be used by our DAs | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| 147 | DA's Mediate Everything for Us: Most services are used by DAs, not humans | 2016 | Real Internet of Things |
| 148 | Everyone, including people, will have an API | December 2016 | N/A |
| 149 | The problem with governments, economies, and societies is best thought of as problems with the population that make them up | February 2017 | N/A |
| 150 | Personal daemons will broadcast preferences | March 2014 | N/A |
| 151 | Venues personalize based on customer preferences | March 2014 | N/A |
| 152 | People will lack meaning and look for it in games | July 2006 | N/A |
This section has a bit more detail about each idea.
If you think about most products and services, they're largely just executing on these components in different ways.
I've come to believe that complex human issues like free will and existentialism come down to understanding that reality has multiple layers. I feel like The Fabric of Reality, by David Deusch, is a good starting point for this idea, although I've been grappling with it for years before reading it in 2024.
The idea is practical rather than technical. It's the notion that each layer of reality is valid on its own, and there isn't an actual "true" reality. Or to put in another way, the way you frame your question and your desired outcomes determines which layers of reality—and thus which truths—get engaged for the answer.
E.g.:
Technically, your neighbor is a mechanistic creature that lacks free will, so he didn't have a choice about whether or not to take your figs. But right now your kid is asking why he can't have a fig, and why your neighborhood is selling them across the street. So the physics conversation is rather moot.
Same with enjoying ice cream, or friendship, or trying to do good in the world. At some layer they're likely all meaningless, but that doesn't matter for humans because we live spend our entire lives in layers where they do.
Humans vibrate at a particular set of layers based on our physical makeup combined with the rules of the universe, and the reactions between those ultimately determine what is real to us. And it's the same for anything else. Meaning, reality, and truth are all dependent on who's asking the questions, and for what reasons.
These are two terms I came up with in 2008 that we would eventually use for talking about people who were augmented with tech—or not. My goal was to have them be easy to say and single syllable.
First, agumented.
And then non-augmented.
We're experiencing a cascading loss of meaning:
This progression represents one of humanity's greatest challenges as we transition to an AI-powered future.
The harsh reality is that AI will eliminate the need for most support roles, leaving only those who are truly essential to remain valuable.
The gap between what people think their job security is and what it actually will be in an AGI world is staggering.
This challenges our fundamental assumptions about employment and the role of work in society.
AI represents the multiplication of human cognitive capabilities at an unprecedented scale.
The focus should be on augmenting human capabilities rather than replacing humans entirely.
This provides a practical, measurable definition of AGI that cuts through the theoretical debates.
This reframes intelligence as primarily driven by passion and curiosity rather than raw cognitive ability.
This highlights the security implications of AI agents multiplying adversarial capabilities.
Rather than one monolithic assistant, we'll have specialized agents for different aspects of our lives.
🚧 (Still adding my ideas...)
Again, a major reason for doing this is to encourage others—namely you—to build your own version of this page. Please make one and send it to me.