A set of stochastic predictions about security, tech, and society
This is where I maintain a list of my predictions about technology and society—along with their accuracy over time.
I do this because I'm obsessed with improving my model for how the world works, and there's no better test than making clear predictions and watching them fall apart over time (or not).
The goal is to find systemic errors in my thinking that I can then correct.
Quote: "We're not waiting for a single model with the general flexibility/capability of an average worker. We're waiting for a single AGI system that can do that."
Open-source models will largely catch up to closed-source models
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Probable
Date Made: February 2023
Estimated Date: 2025
Reference: Verbal
Where Said: Conversation/Interview
Quote: "The gap between open and closed models will significantly narrow"
Apple is about to go from the worst AI implementation to the best
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Probable
Date Made: January 2025
Estimated Date: April 2025
Reference: Newsletter
Where Said: Newsletter
Quote: "Apple will leapfrog from worst to best AI implementation"
Russia will significantly return to normal trading status by 2027
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Chances About Even
Date Made: March 2023
Estimated Date: 2027
Reference: Post
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "Russia will normalize trade relations within 4 years"
Everyone, including people, will have an API
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: December 2016
Estimated Date: Open
Reference: Book
Where Said: Book publication
Quote: "Personal APIs will become as common as social media profiles"
Quote: "So, the whole idea of the world is to substitute for the failing one that exists in reality. The one where most people are weak and powerless."
Masive jumps in AI will be made through slack-in-the-rope advancements, i.e., "tricks"
Status: Confirmed ✅
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: August 2024
Estimated Date: 2024-2030
Reference: Essay
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "Major AI breakthroughs will come from clever techniques rather than pure scale"
Extreme liberals will get Trump re-elected in 2024
Quote: "Extreme progressive positions will alienate moderate voters and hand Trump victory"
Trump will officially end the war in Ukraine by April 1, 2025
Status: Miss ❌
Confidence: Likely
Date Made: March 2023
Estimated Date: April 1, 2025
Reference: Post
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "Trump will quickly negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict"
People will return to Twitter within 6 months
Status: Miss ❌
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: December 2022
Estimated Date: Mid 2023
Reference: Multiple
Where Said: Various conversations
Quote: "Elon will fix Twitter and people will come back quickly"
Notes
Once I make a prediction here I will not materially change it. The whole point of this is to lock it in so I can see my mistakes and tally my record over time.
AI is great for projects like this because you can feed your whole list to a model and have it tell you the biases that are causing your errors. I do this frequently within my TELOS file and it's quite powerful.
I have omitted a number of predictions I've made that came true just because they seem so obvious at this point, e.g., how deepfakes would make it so people can't tell reality from fiction. They just don't seem worth mentioning at this point.