Predictions
A set of stochastic predictions about security, tech, and society
This is where I maintain a list of my predictions about technology and society—along with their accuracy over time.
I do this because I'm obsessed with improving my model for how the world works, and there's no better test than making clear predictions and watching them fall apart over time (or not).
The goal is to find systemic errors in my thinking that I can then correct.
Predictions Quick View
Here's a short view of the predictions in table format.
| Prediction | Conf % | Date Predicted | Status |
|---|
| Recession-like shock caused by AI job loss by 2027 | Chances About Even | July 2025 | 🔄 |
| Russia will significantly return to normal trading status by 2027 | Chances About Even | March 2023 | 🔄 |
| We'll have AGI betewen 2025 and 2028 | Almost Certain | March 2023 | 🔄 |
| Open-source models will largely catch up to closed-source models | Probable | February 2023 | 🔄 |
| Apple is about to go from the worst AI implementation to the best. | Probable | January 2025 | 🔄 |
| Everyone, including people, will have an API | Almost Certain | December 2016 | 🔄 |
| Personal daemons will broadcast preferences | Almost Certain | March 2014 | 🔄 |
| Venues personalize based on customer preferences | Almost Certain | March 2014 | 🔄 |
| People will lack meaning and look for it in games | Almost Certain | July 2006 | 🔄 |
| Masive jumps in AI will be made through slack-in-the-rope advancements, i.e., "tricks" | Almost Certain | August 2024 | ✅ |
| Extreme liberals will get Trump re-elected in 2024 | Almost Certain | Mid 2020 | ✅ |
| Trump will officially end the war in Ukraine by April 1, 2025 | Likely | March 2023 | ❌ |
| People will return to Twitter within 6 months | Almost Certain | December 2022 | ❌ |
Correct Predictions
| Prediction | Conf % | Date Predicted | Status |
|---|
| Extreme liberals will get Trump re-elected in 2024 | Almost Certain | Mid 2020 | ✅ |
| Masive jumps in AI will be made through slack-in-the-rope advancements, i.e., "tricks" | Almost Certain | August 2024 | ✅ |
Missed Predictions
| Prediction | Conf % | Date Predicted | Status |
|---|
| Trump will officially end the war in Ukraine by April 1, 2025 | Likely | March 2023 | ❌ |
| People will return to Twitter within 6 months | Almost Certain | December 2022 | ❌ |
Detailed Predictions
Recession-like shock caused by AI job loss by 2027
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Chances About Even
Date Made: July 2025
Estimated Date: Before 2027
Reference: Post
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "AI will cause significant job displacement leading to economic shock"
We'll have AGI between 2025 and 2028
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: March 2023
Estimated Date: 2025-2028
Where Said: Blog
Quote: "We're not waiting for a single model with the general flexibility/capability of an average worker. We're waiting for a single AGI system that can do that."
Open-source models will largely catch up to closed-source models
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Probable
Date Made: February 2023
Estimated Date: 2025
Reference: Verbal
Where Said: Conversation/Interview
Quote: "The gap between open and closed models will significantly narrow"
Apple is about to go from the worst AI implementation to the best
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Probable
Date Made: January 2025
Estimated Date: April 2025
Reference: Newsletter
Where Said: Newsletter
Quote: "Apple will leapfrog from worst to best AI implementation"
Russia will significantly return to normal trading status by 2027
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Chances About Even
Date Made: March 2023
Estimated Date: 2027
Reference: Post
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "Russia will normalize trade relations within 4 years"
Everyone, including people, will have an API
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: December 2016
Estimated Date: Open
Reference: Book
Where Said: Book publication
Quote: "Personal APIs will become as common as social media profiles"
Personal daemons will broadcast preferences
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: March 2014
Estimated Date: Open
Where Said: Blog
Quote: "These are sets of preferences, attributes, and interests that are 'broadcasted' to others everywhere you go."
Venues personalize based on customer preferences
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: March 2014
Estimated Date: Open
Where Said: Blog
Quote: "You could walk into a sports bar and have all the TVs turn to MMA because the restaurant's daemon knows you like it."
People will lack meaning and look for it in games
Status: In Progress 🔄
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: July 2006
Estimated Date: Open
Where Said: Blog
Quote: "So, the whole idea of the world is to substitute for the failing one that exists in reality. The one where most people are weak and powerless."
Masive jumps in AI will be made through slack-in-the-rope advancements, i.e., "tricks"
Status: Confirmed ✅
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: August 2024
Estimated Date: 2024-2030
Reference: Essay
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "Major AI breakthroughs will come from clever techniques rather than pure scale"
Extreme liberals will get Trump re-elected in 2024
Status: Confirmed ✅
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: Mid 2020
Estimated Date: November 2024
Where Said: Blog
Quote: "Extreme progressive positions will alienate moderate voters and hand Trump victory"
Trump will officially end the war in Ukraine by April 1, 2025
Status: Miss ❌
Confidence: Likely
Date Made: March 2023
Estimated Date: April 1, 2025
Reference: Post
Where Said: Blog post
Quote: "Trump will quickly negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict"
People will return to Twitter within 6 months
Status: Miss ❌
Confidence: Almost Certain
Date Made: December 2022
Estimated Date: Mid 2023
Reference: Multiple
Where Said: Various conversations
Quote: "Elon will fix Twitter and people will come back quickly"
Notes