Frontview Mirror: 2025 Edition
UL Member Content
Table of Contents
As with every piece in this series, I won’t pretend I can see what’s coming. Because I can’t—and nobody can.
So what I’m going to do here—typical of the series—is to throw a bunch of stuff on the board and see what we think of them. This time, we’re also going to turn the post into a thread on UL Discord so we can actively discuss what we throw out here.
Think of these less as pure predictions and more like stream-of-consciousness whiteboarding combined with some possible (not overly serious) predictions.
🗒️ I will avoid overly saying "I think" and "maybe" in these because it’s so cumbersome to look at. I’ll either try to give percentages or find some other "total context" way to convey how confident in the various projections.
But in general, if I’m VERY confident, then it’s like 85-95%. And somewhat confident is more like 65-75%.
So basically, adjust what you hear way down in confidence unless I say otherwise.
Ok, let’s take these one at a time…
Russia and Ukraine
The Ukraine War ends in less than 6 months (90), and probably less than 3 (70)
Trump sits Putin an Zelensky down and tells them to figure out borders and forces them to sign a deal. And it’s done
Trump massively lowers tension with Russia, removes a ton of sanctions
The end result is that Russia ends up re-integrating with Europe and the world to a surprising degree over the next 1-3 years—almost as if they never invaded Ukraine
Russia and the US
Russia becomes kind of like a friendly frenemy with the US, because of Putin’s relationship with Trump
Many US sanctions on Russia get silently removed, and the same happens in other countries as well
💡I think the binding thing Putin and Trump have in common is a general feeling that they’re protecting Western, Christian civilization against chaos caused by Islamic Extremism and Postmodern Wokeism.
And because they feel united at that level, it diminishes the disagreements they have other political and security issues. Basically, in their minds, if they’re the last "good guys" fighting against the lunacy that wants to destroy civilization—they’re more friends than enemies.
I don’t know that this is a true or strong dynamic, but it’s a world model that I’ve put together that seems to explain a lot, and I’m looking for evidence to support or refute it. Also fits a lot of the other trends we talk about here.
The Rise of Christian Nationalism
The above coincides with a general rise in a defense of (white?) Christian culture that we’re seeing throughout Europe, mostly coming from the far right
Extreme right parties in France, Germany, Eastern Europe, etc. will continue to gain strength because (in my opinion) the left/center refuses to touch immigration and cultural dissonance issues in a direct and logical way.
💡In short, the inability for the left/center to speak honestly about immigration/culture issues means they give all the power to the far right. Which means the issues aren’t likely to be approached with empathy and humanism, but rather with hatred and bigotry.
US Goes Hardcore Pro-Israel
Netanyahu is strengthened by Trump due to their strongman affinities (despite their disagreements in the past), and the US continues to support Israel’s attacks on not just Hamas and Hezbollah, but also on Iran (70)
China and Iran Become the Main Adversaries of the West
Russia becomes more friendly with the US, and almost becomes a friendly compared to our actual enemies
Trump gets Saudi to partner with Israel, similar to what they were going to do before October 7th
So the main adversaries to the US become China and Iran—but mostly China
China gets increasingly marginalized and ostracized, which increases their agitation and the chances of them doing something rash in Taiwan
Trump’s trade policies put even more pressure on China because thousands of companies will start moving their offshoring to Vietnam, Mexico, and other options to avoid paying tariffs for building in China
Russia plays the middle between US-China, and US-Iran
The US Buddies Up Even Closer with India
Tulsi Gabbard is strongly pro-India, and specifically Hindu Nationalism, and is very Russia-friendly. She’s also the US’s new head of Intelligence
This will solidify the trend to normalizing relations with Russia
It also brings the US closer to India with regard to India’s being torn between Russia and the US. In this mode, it can be more openly friendly with both because all three are more friendly
Again, this goes back to protecting against Radical Islam and Wokeism (and China). The US and Russia being on India’s side against Pakistan (and China in the US’s case) is huge, combined with generally supporting their hardline against cultural attacks against the mainstream (Hindu Nationalism)
Axis and Allies
So what this effectively means is:
Allies: US, Canada, Mexico, Western Europe, Israel, Saudi
Axis: China, Iran, North KoreaRussia sits in a weird / happy place between them both, benefiting from both, and influencing both to hate each other
The AI Crash-Takeoff
We’re in a strange place where a lot of the AI hype and noise is dying down, and now there’s a strange silence where everyone—from consumers to investors—is trying to figure out what’s next
I think what’s next is what I’ll call the Crash-Takeoff, where two things happen at once. 1) A lot of the companies/projects/investments that were FOMO-based and not well-thought-out, will die. While, 2) the projects/companies/investments that were based on solid AI and business fundamentals will hockey stick.
So it’s not whether AI will be a bubble and burst, or whether it will go to the moon. Both will happen, somewhat simultaneously, in a way that’s confusing to those who can’t see that it’s two things happening at once
Enterprise Continues to Roll Out AI
Part of the hockey stick narrative is the endless push to reduce expenses, aka reduce headcount. See The End of Work. Not everything happening in AI is that though: some companies will just be doing small-o optimizing
Either way, the push to get more and more of business operations moved to AI will continue and accelerate. Call centers. Support. Sales. Marketing. And pretty much every other area as well.
Some departments and companies and sectors will move faster than others but the pressure towards this will be relentless, and it will only accelerate as AI gets better—especially as Agents start to truly come online
AI Agents Start to Mature
I think 2025 is pretty likely (80) to hit a tipping point of usability and consistency in 2025, which will mangify the effectiveness of all the AI that was build from 2022-2024
Agents are—in my opinion—what get us to AGI. Not one particular standalone model, but Agentic Systems that can perform tasks as good or better than a certain level of competent human knowlege worker (see my AI definitions here)
So basically, if you purchase an AI Employee from Accenture, for example, you’re actually buying a pretty complex system behind that. It’s a network of AI Agents operating together in a way that feels like one thing
Will that be "true" AGI? That’s for the philosophers to figure out. But I call it AGI because it’ll be able to replicate the work of a highly-competent human—which is what we actually care about
AGI in 2025?
Will this definition of AGI happen in 2025? Who knows. I think it’s possible, but I’d put it at something like 70% chance of happening in 2025
My sweet spot for AGI—using the definition above is more like 2026-2027
I’d say we have an 90% chance of hitting this definition of AGI between 2025 and 2028, which is my original estimate from 2023
The Pro-business Environment Post-US-Election
We can see from the stock market’s performance how optimistic the business world is about Trump’s second presidency
I am not an expert on macroeconomics or inflation, but I understand that there are forces like inflation that might be worse under Trump if he massively grows the debt and/or goes too aggressive with tariffs
But I also know that Everything is Framing, and you should not discount the power of positive momentum, belief, and the country and/or world thinking that the US is on the ascent
I expect tons of investment activity, IPOs, new startups, and general positivity and energy coming into the US economy
This is also combined with far less regulation, and the hype from the possibility of the DOGE efforts finding / returning hundreds of billions of dollars to the economy
Combined Forces Accelerate the US Relative to the World
I think given all the above, the US is in an extraordinarily good position
Not just politically, and economically, but just in general—in terms of vibes (Framing)
I don’t see much risk of the US Dollar failing as the world’s currency when it seems like the most ascendant country in the world right now
Yes, China is as strong or stronger economically, but over the last few years the whole world has realized they’re malicious and basically an enemy
So countries that are doing business with China are doing so because they have to, not because they want to. I think the US has its own problems in that regard, but long-term I think many more countries would rather be friendly with the US than China
Europe is in decline due to mismanagemnt of its politics, too much immigration, a failure to assimilate the people they’ve brought in, resistance to embracing AI, and a general culture of caution, regulation, and isolationism
Canada is similarly paralyzed
Russia is ostracised and in the middle of a war
The middle east is trying to figure out how to pivot out of oil
Japan is struggling with economic and demographic issues
So it’s basically the US vs. China in terms of who smaller countries are going to tie themselves to for their future hopes, and I think the US is winning that narrative
Job Market Dynamics
This one is the hardest to predict for similar reasons to the AI situation
I anticipate a lot more business and optimism and activity, which will naturally lead to more hiring
But at the same time there will be a lot more layoffs due to downsizing and optimizing—much of which will involve the migration to AI
So you could be part of both or either of these. Prepare for both
The safest place to be, in my opinion, is to be moving towards Human 3.0 where you are building and selling your own products and services
Getting Ready For All of This
Assuming I’m directionally right about some or most of this, what do we do?
For this, I’ll refer to a recent newsletter recommendation of the week:
Taking more recommendations from previous episodes, I’d also say:
Understand what part of this stack you’re good at:
IDEA → TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION → GO TO MARKETEnhance your abilities in your strongest area in that stack, but also start working towards being able to do the entire stack
Use AI to help you do this; make it part of everything you do
Use a system like TELOS to deeply understand what you’re trying to do, starting with the problems you’re trying to solve
Lock down your Most Important Sentence
Read like your life depends on it, because it does. I recommend 50 books in 2025. Mostly high-quality non-fiction, with some high-quality fiction thrown in
Realize that nobody knows what’s going to happen in what could be one of the craziest years in history, so the game is not to have the perfect plan
The game is getting really good at adjusting your plans
The skills and activities above are designed to help you no matter what happens
Predictions
🗒️ I used Fabric’s extract_predictions to consume the above and come up with some concise predictions. Again, this is a thought exercise—not prophecy.
Recommendations
And from that, here are the extracted recommendations (extract_recommendations).
Not perfect, but not bad.
Final Analysis
Last thing to say here is what you see above is simply what I see happening, and in most cases I’ve purposely decoupled that from my opinions about them.
So as for my opinions, I don’t think they matter much. This is the world we’re heading into, so I don’t see much value in complaining. But if you force me to say something, I’m generally terrified and optimistic.
All this motion towards preferring strength and unification and booming economic growth might be extremely positive, and I am forcing myself to be upbeat about it and hopiong for the best. At the same time, we could be setting ourselves up for a new Dark Ages of authoritarian control and oversight—this time assisted by AI. Yay.
It’s all very U-shaped. Pretty high chances for resounding success and a blossoming West—and far too high a chance for something truly Orwellian and dystopian.
As usual, I’m doing my best to stay on the Optimism side—with the help of the UL Community—and preparing for whatever comes.
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I hope this has been helpful.
I’m going to keep the text here locked in after a couple of days, and add my predictions to my TELOS file so I can retroactively see what I was wrong about and find my own biases.
See you soon.