A set of thoughts on how I currently see US politics and the upcoming election  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

A set of thoughts on how I currently see US politics and the upcoming election

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Some assorted thoughts on my personal politics, the current state of politics in the US, how I see the election playing out, and I guess my views on politics in general.

This is kind of stream-of-conscousness style, designed to get a bunch of shit on paper. I might make it into an essay later, but probably won’t.

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I’m starting to get why Hamilton and Socrates were so worried about democracies. Basically, if your population is stupid, or delusional, or ignorant, or misinformed, or whatever. However it happened, if they’re not tightly coupled with reality—and knowledge of history—it’s a problem.

I wrote this about it in a couple of places over the years, but these might be two of the better ones:

Our Problem is Gullibility, Not Disinformation

September 13, 2020 I think we’ve lost the plot on disinformation. It’s not the attacks that are the problem. It’s the fact that too many Americans are…

danielmiessler.com/p/our-real-weakness-is-gullibility-not-disinformation

And this one…

If You Believe Nothing You Can Be Convinced of Anything

There’s a crisis in the Information Security Community right now related to the Russia Hacking Attribution issue. The short version is that people have…

danielmiessler.com/p/believe-nothing-can-convinced-anything

So here’s what I know pretty solidly:

1. If you think pure democracy without a certain quality of population can sustain a free country, you’re wrong and will suffer the consequences of that mistake

2. If you think that you’re then justified in codifying an “elite” that rules over the masses, you’re wrong and will suffer the consequences of that mistake

3. The third path is—as always with me—a hybrid. And it looks something like this:

   1. We can’t have a democracy without an educated and informed and non-crazy population (we’ll need better words, obviously)
   2. We must resist the urge to think that because 1 is true, we need to allow an elite to rule, because “the people are too stupid”. This is guaranteed to fail over time, and isn’t free in the first place so you’ve already violated the whole point of a free country
   3. So, what we must do, is carefully maintain the health and eduction of the population so that they’re free-thinkers, and aware of history, and aware of all the different ways governments fail, and aware of how precarious democracies are, and aware of how much of an honor it is to vote for your own representatives, etc.
   4. And if we don’t do #3, we can’t expect democracy to survive, and we’re guaranteed to be heading towards facscism or communism (let’s just lump them together because they both equally suck when fully realized)

The US is currently full of people who don’t know anything. When I say full I mean like half, or 30%, or 70%. I don’t know the numbers, and they obviously depend on where you set your definitions and where you put the metric, but I think it’s way past the point of being unable to support a democracy.

This is why communism and fascism are starting to sound good to people. Because we’re stupid.

Also, when people aren’t doing well that also makes them emotional. And. more prone to being stupid. Which is why #3 above also includes healthy, i.e., a high standard of living. Not stressing about food, shelter, education for kids, etc.

It is only with that kind of base-level comfort that people can even rise to become their best and highest selves.

This is what a lot of the modern right doesn’t get. Which is why I’m a liberal. Or progressive. Or whatever. Old-style liberal.

I used to be fond a particular saying, “Liberal goals, conservative means.”

I think it’s hitting with me again.

Here’s the society I think we need to build:

• Everyone values work and being useful as #1
• Everyone realizes that self-discipline and self-sacrifice is essential
• Parents see their only purpose as raising useful kids that are good for society, and they hope for them to be happy while doing so. In fact they’re confident that they will be, because that’s what they believe happiness comes from
• There is a massive safety net for sick people, people who are massively unlucky
• And another type of safety net for lazy and evil people, which is kind of like isolation and re-education, but not soviet style
• So it’s like, “Hey, our society is based on being kind and productive and useful.” If you aren’t those things we’re going to separate you from those who are, and we’re going to try to help you.
• Simultaneously, the other safety net is working to ensure that everyone is healthy (not traumatized growing up), is highly educated, and is told that THEY CAN DO ANYTHING. They are the future. We’re investing in them and it’s their duty to be good citizens and give back.
• So, we’re taking care of the people who are mentally ill with like brain tumors or whatever, or sick. And we try to re-train and integrate people who do bad things, or try to just fuck around and sap off of society, but we take care of them in the meantime because they are ultimately OUR failure as a society
• Importantly, we put the work in via schooling to ensure fewer and fewer people go into that bucket. And eventually there won’t be many/any.

This is very liberal. This is very conservative.

It’s liberal because we’re lifting everyone and investing in them, and treating them kindly.

It’s conservative because we’re demanding excellence and not telling people it’s ok to be a slackass.

This is the society (I think) we need to build.

• Free
• Plentiful
• Focused on usefulness to others
• Rooted in kindness
• Rooted in service to others
• Demanding, but compassionate
• Race identity becomes a non-issue
• Gender identity becomes a non-issue
• Everyone is judged based on character and beliefs and actions, not on gender or race identity
• We exchange things of human value with each other in a post-Capitalism economy
• Actually it’s still technically capitalism because people are still selling into a market, but its stated goal is to enhance human flourishing and meaning, not to increase profits or productivity for their own sake

Inspired by love, guided by knowledge.

Bertrand Russel

Today

A convo like 2 minutes ago with a close childhood friend who voted for Trump twice

The far left in the US is going to get Trump elected.

They are completely disconnected from the quiet majority in the US, which—contrary to their beliefs—are not based on racism. They’re based in just normalcy. They want things to be normal, standard, whatever. They’re opposing massive change, and most of all—the opinion that believing in two genders or loving the united states makes them evil.

In short, the country is mad because the liberals—and therefore the media—think that most people in the country are evil deplorables. And that it’s their job—these moralistic elites—to protect the country from “Those People”.

This is it. This is the whole game. This is the mistake that the left is making.

Don’t believe me? Then explain this.

538 results as of June 24th, 2024

Trump is reprehensible to most Republicans. Or at least he would be if he weren’t the sole defender of the rather normal and sane beliefs of like 50% of the US population.

Basically, the left has made it so that if you love the United States, you have to vote for Trump.

Do you know how massive of a strategic mistake that is?

Here’s the set of beliefs that are required for you to be accepted in modern far-left circles:

• The US is an evil country based on racism and sexism
• This has never really changed
• If you’re rich and white and/or jewish in the US today, you are so because of this legacy of racism
• If you’re unsuccessful and of color in the US today, it’s because of this legacy of racism
• The country is too poisoned to salvage
• That’s why it’s time to elect people who are into DEI and communism, because they get that the only solution is to start over
• Anyone who voted for Trump did so purely because they’re racist
• People like that are remnants of the worst part of the US, and they should be treated like Nazis or worse
• It’s ok to start surgeries if your 11-year-old is depressed and tells you they feel like the opposite gender, and in fact it’s evil not to

The fact that the far-left, and the media, are basically pushing this agenda and narrative, and teaching this in schools to our kids, is what’s making people vote for Trump.

And on the right. Oh god.

Here’s what you need to believe to be part of this new extreme right:

• Trump is our savior
• He can do no wrong
• Him doing wrong is actually just another kind of doing right
• Things were much better when women were in the kitchen
• We made mistakes when we gave women the vote
• God makes babies so ending pregnancies is murder
• Books with controversial ideas in them are dangerous, so we should ban them to protect our kids
• The US is the best country in the world and I won’t be taking any questions
• There’s no such thing as being gay or transgender; it’s all evil coming from the left

—

Now, here’s the problem, and why I feel abandoned as a voter.

Neither the left nor the right are trying to build this:

• Free
• Plentiful
• Focused on usefulness to others
• Rooted in kindness
• Rooted in service to others
• Demanding, but compassionate
• Race identity becomes a non-issue
• Gender identity becomes a non-issue
• Everyone is judged based on character and beliefs and actions, not on gender or race identity
• We exchange things of human value with each other in a post-Capitalism economy
• Actually it’s still technically capitalism because people are still selling into a market, but its stated goal is to enhance human flourishing and meaning, not to increase profits or productivity for their own sake

They’re both trying to build reactionary responses to the shit-show that is the opposite’s extreme vision.

So we’re being asked to choose between Fascist Stepford Wife Handmaiden’s Tale, or Communist Post-Modernism Anarchy.

Yay.

Oh, and much of the world is somewhere along this timeline as well, with some other types of dystopia available on the menu.

Europe is starting to have to worry about basics, which—see above—is not good for higher-thinking.

Their experiment with basically open borders has failed, and they’ve learned that there are material differences between cultures that affect everything. See: religion.

Immigrants and immigration are generally the best thing ever for a country, when executed properly. Immigrants made the US. And they still do today.

Europe executed improperly, and now they have serious trouble. The result is looking a lot like nationalism and fascism for many countries. Oh, and they’re adding in the pushing of traditional gender roles and other conservative favorites for flavor. It’s going to be really nasty.

India has some very strange nationalism, racism type stuff going on as well, but I’m uneducated on the particulars.

Basically, the world right now is one giant refutation of Steven Pinker’s positivity books.

Here’s the crazy thing I realized recently when I wrote all that stuff about framing.

It’s not what’s happening that matters. It’s what people feel is happening. Reality doesn’t matter. The perception of reality is what matters.

Biden has done insane things for the economy. Based on—you know—numbers. The stock market is doing better than ever. Innovation in America is insane. We’re onshoring more manufacturing. Europe is stumbling. We’re hampering China’s ascent in AI. Things are pretty great on some metrics.

But people FEEL like they’re bad.

So Trump will come in and say words and the economy will be pretty much the same in 3 months. Meaning, still going up at the same pace.

And Trump will announce that he fixed the economy.

He’ll show a chart of the gains made during Biden, which will go up and to the right.

And the country will come to one conclusion:

Trump fixed the economy.

3 months in.

How is this possible?

Because when you don’t know anything about the topic, it’s your feelings that matter, not the truth.

Or hell, even if you do know the topic. Feelings still…uh…Trump the truth.

It’s all about perceptions. Framing.

Framing is Everything

We're seeing reality through drastically different lenses, and living in different worlds because of it…

danielmiessler.com/p/framing-is-everything

It’s insane to me that this applies equally to how people view their own lives, but also how they view politicians or their country.

It’s literally all about vibes.

Anyway, that’s what I wanted to get out there.

Talk soon.