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Predictions

A set of stochastic predictions about security, tech, and society

Here I maintain a list of my predictions about technology, society, and the futureā€”along with their accuracy over time.

These are done in the spirit of the book Superforecasting, which is all about how to make rational predictions when you know predicting the future isn't really possible. It's about operating within uncertainty, and I highly recommend it.

Furthermore, I recommend you check out what I say about Stochastic Prediction here.


( šŸš§ Under Construction)

Active Predictions :: Predictions that have not yet been validated or invalidated.

Historical Predictions :: Predictions that have been validated or invalidated, along with their outcomes.