Daniel Miessler

Predictions

A set of stochastic predictions about security, tech, and society

This is where I maintain a list of my predictions about technology and society—along with their accuracy over time.

I do this because I'm obsessed with improving my model for how the world works, and there's no better test than making clear predictions and watching them fall apart over time (or not).

The goal is to find systemic errors in my thinking that I can then correct.

Predictions Quick View ​

Here's a short view of the predictions in table format.

PredictionConf %Date PredictedDate ESTReferenceStatus
Trump will officially end the war in Ukraine by April 1, 2025LikelyMarch 2023April 1, 2025PostIn Progress 🔄
Russia will significantly return to normal trading status by 2027Chances About EvenMarch 20232027PostIn Progress 🔄
We'll have AGI betewen 2025 and 2028Almost CertainMarch 20232025-2028PostIn Progress 🔄
Open-source models will largely catch up to closed-source modelsProbableFebruary 20232025VerbalIn Progress 🔄
Apple is about to go from the worst AI implementation to the best.ProbableJanuary 2025April 2025NewsletterIn Progress 🔄
Masive jumps in AI will be made through slack-in-the-rope advancements, i.e., "tricks"Almost CertainAugust 20242024-2030EssayConfirmed ✅
People will return to Twitter within 6 monthsAlmost CertainDecember 2022Mid 2023MultipleMiss ❌
Extreme liberals will get Trump re-elected in 2024Almost CertainMid 2020November 2024BlogConfirmed ✅
Everyone, including people, will have an APIAlmost CertainDecember 2016OpenBookIn Progress 🔄
Personal daemons will broadcast preferencesAlmost CertainMarch 2014OpenPostIn Progress 🔄
Venues personalize based on customer preferencesAlmost CertainMarch 2014OpenPostIn Progress 🔄
People will lack meaning and look for it in gamesAlmost CertainJuly 2006OpenPostIn Progress 🔄

Individual Predictions by Year ​

And here are the predictions broken down individually, sorted by newest to oldest.


2023 ​


Prediction: We will have AGI by 2025-2028 ​

  • Date of Prediction: March 2023

  • Quote:

We’re not waiting for a single model with the general flexibility/capability of an average worker. We’re waiting for a single AGI system that can do that. To the human controlling it, it’s the same. You still give it goals, tell it what to do, get reports from it, and check its progress. Just like a co-worker or employee.

Notes

  1. This prediction works off this definition of AGI.
  2. Jan 12, 2025 — This prediction has been made multiple times and I'm improving my content RAG to find the earliest instance.
  3. Jan 12, 2025 — I am still confident in this one, and am currently putting this at 40% chance for 2025, and 50% for 2026, and 10% 2027 or beyond.

Prediction: Elon Musk will fix Twitter(X) within 6 months of buying it, and most everyone will return to using it like normal ​

  • Date of Prediction: 2 Months After The Purchase

  • Status: Miss ❌

Notes

  1. Just a clear miss here.

2014 ​

Prediction: Personal AI assistants ("daemons") will automatically broadcast and exchange our preferences with nearby devices and venues ​

Date of Prediction: March 2014

Quote:

These are sets of preferences, attributes, and interests that are "broadcasted" to others everywhere you go. The key component of these daemons is that they interact constantly with other daemons that are physically near them, e.g. people, restaurants, homes, businesses, entertainment venues, etc.

References:

Status: In Progress 🔄


Prediction: Venues and businesses will automatically personalize their environment based on aggregated customer preferences ​

You could walk into a sports bar and have all the TVs turn to MMA because the restaurant's daemon knows you like it. And you're greeted by a tall guy with dark hair because that's what your profile says you like in a waiter. On first contact he brings you an iced tea with extra lemon, because the restaurant told him that's what you like.

Status: In Progress 🔄


2006 ​

Prediction: Many will come to have relatively meaningless existences, which they will solve by becoming interesting versions of themselves inside of games. ​

So, the whole idea of the world is to substitute for the failing one that exists in reality. The one where most people are weak and powerless. So people will go to work just to pay their gaming subscription, and they’ll subscribe to the modules that they enjoy.
  • Status: In Progress 🔄

Notes

  1. Once I make a prediction here I will not materially change it. The whole point of this is to lock it in so I can see my mistakes and tally my record over time.
  2. AI is great for projects like this because you can feed your whole list to a model and have it tell you the biases that are causing your errors. I do this frequently within my TELOS file and it's quite powerful.
  3. I have omitted a number of predictions I've made that came true just because they seem so obvious at this point, e.g., how deepfakes would make it so people can't tell reality from fiction. They just don't seem worth mentioning at this point.