Immigration and National/Racial Identity is Becoming the Top Global Security Issue

When I hear that a terror attack happened in the US, Britain, or Canada I immediately think:

1. Young

2. Male

3. White

4. Nationalist/Racist

This is a problem. Not because I’m thinking it, but because I’m increasingly correct.

I think conflict caused by European cultural, national, and racial identity is becoming one of the top security concerns in the world right now. This is definitely true in Europe, but similar dynamics are spinning up in the US and Canada as well.

I think it’s multi-causal, though. It’s not all immigration. It’s harder to find a job, things cost more, and women are getting more demanding about the quality of their mates. So you’ve got millions of young white guys being told they’re the worst ever, that nobody wants them, and then you add immigration to that, and it becomes an easy onramp for extremist narratives and leaders. They’re happy to offer them-shaped scapegoats.

At the same time, much of Europe, especially in the East, is moving more authoritarian. They’re going more “protecting our culture”, “protecting the native population”, and more isolationist. Then you look at what’s happening in Sweden with second-generation-caused gang violence, and the rise of the Far Right there. Similar Far Right gains are happening in France, and now in Ireland as well.

This immigration/identity thing is a super volcano getting ready to pop, and there are only three main ways to address it.

Possible solutions

1. The Left-Wing Way: Dismiss all questions about culture, identity, and immigration as racist, and use the Cancel Hammer to attack anyone who talks about it.

2. The Logical-Moral Way: Start having kind, open, and honest conversations about the numbers and cultures of the people coming into Europe, what it even means to be “European” as a country or a culture, and consider policy changes that could help reduce tension in a way that’s acceptable for both the immigrants and the receiving countries.

3. The Right-Wing Way: Declare that white people are under attack from non-white immigration, stir up hatred in the native youth who are already struggling financially and existentially, and then use that negative energy to elect a new authoritarian leader who will eventually lead to atrocities against immigrants (and people they think are immigrants) in the name of nationalism.

Broadly speaking, those are our choices, with much of the narrative currently stuck in #1—with the Far Right now ascending all over the place to bring in #3.

Unfortunately, #1 causes #3, and the only thing capable of getting us out of this is #2, which seems completely impossible. That’s why this is one of the top security issues to watch in 2024 and beyond.

It will be a very dangerous thing when the most attractive narrative to millions of young white people men is a nationalist/racist one, which will no doubt come with a matching authoritarian leader.

We’ve seen these movies before, and they all suck.

NOTES

1. There’s another solution related to #2 that involves giving people escape hatches through narrative changes. This should obviously come as part of tangible policy change that reduces the actual tension, but it’s possible to dramatically increase or reduce pain by thinking about it in different ways. HUMILIATION IS DEADLY