I’ve been thinking about all these layoffs, and wanted to capture some thoughts and speculations on the causes. Both for the existing ones, and those I think are to come.

Economic pressure

First, there’s the economy. Or what it was for the last year or two. And the dearth of IPOs. And the general down sentiment. Then you have the interest rate issue, which has restricted growth.

Basically there’s already natural pressure, before we even get into the stuff I’m talking about.

Companies transition from employee-first to company-first

I think the pendulum has swung away from employee-first and is moving rapidly towards company-first. I think, largely because of pressure put on them by the economy, companies are realizing they can’t afford to be employee-first. They have to be mercenary in their culling. And ideally they wouldn’t overhire in the first place, but we’ll give a pass for COVID.

But think about the mindset of most people coming out of college. They’re imagining this smooth and exciting career, with lots of promotions, lots of benefits, and hopefully good equity and lucrative payouts. And relatively little risk.

It’s like they think they’ve already put the work in, which was the degree. Now it’s the easy part—the job. So many new hires feel entitled to some amazing career because they show up on day 1 with a degree and a smile. And if they just show up on time and put in average work, they’ll be good.

They can be forgiven for thinking that because it was true until just recently.

But that’s the part that’s changing. I don’t think most people’s average output is near good enough anymore. I think those days are gone.

Killers or nothing

I think the trend is for companies to want far fewer employees, and to want those few to have:

1. A Company or Project-first Mentality

2. Super High Energy

3. Super High Competence

4. Killer Instinct

5. Execution and Outcome-focused

It depends where you draw the line, but let’s say this is 10% of employees.

Technology and automation isn’t to the place where we can replace 90% of our workforces, so that isn’t the percentage that’s in immediate danger.

But I do think companies might want to almost immediately get rid of like 25%. And keep in mind, this is all intuition and guessing. This is the most unscientific, finger-in-wind stuff you can imagine. But just hear me out.

Let’s say they are like, let’s just cut the bottom 25% because we need that money back and they’re already not performing.

But in this model, they actually wish they could get rid of another 40-60%.

If they could replace them with other A or B players.

Now add AI

Making things much worse for all these old-thinking college graduates is the fact that AI is about to hit at the same time as this company-first mentality is hitting. On top of a bad economy.

So now it’s:

bad economy + company-first culture + AI

And the AI one is going to get far more capable of replacing human workers in the coming months and years.

Which means it’s going to allow companies to get to where they actually want to be, which is:

100% Killers.

That’s what every company wants. A-players. In every position. A-players do many times the work of a C-player.

So the game with AI will not only be hiring A-players, but finding the subset of the A-players who can magnify themselves using AI and AI agents.

That turns them into the hyper-competent. The new A-players.

And so-on.

So here’s the question:

What about everyone else? What about the C-players (most everyone) who have the job mentality of just to go work, 9-5. Do a decent job. Don’t be a pain. Send the email. File the paperwork. Etc.

What happens to them?

I think they get crushed. I think they won’t have a place to work before too long. I think they’ll be replaceable by a more competent A-player who has AI help.

And if the B-players can get replaced, forget about the D’s and F’s.

Ok, so what happens?

First, I don’t know. We’re just thinking on paper here.

What I think happens is we move really quickly towards UBI. I don’t see any other way that doesn’t go bloody and French.

And how do we pay for it?

That part’s easy. The A and B players will now be functioning at 10X output for the whole company. And then 100X. And then 1000X.

A/B players augmented by AI will hockey-stick the global economy.

But here’s my problem.

We’re making way more stuff, and way better stuff. But who’s buying it?

So the top 10% makes all the stuff, which is 100x as much, and 100x better, but the 90% don’t have a job. So the government takes a ton of the profits from the top 10% and gives that to the bottom 90% as UBI?

So they can buy the stuff the 10% are making?

That seems crazy to me. Well, it is crazy. But I’m not sure if it’s feasible or realistic. Economically or politically. Or however.

But let’s get less extreme. Let’s not say 10/90. This won’t hit all at once.

Let’s call it 20/80. Top 20% thriving, everyone else suffering. I mean we’re already kind of there in some measures.

Recommendations

Ok, that’s the rough outline.

So what do I recommend? What do I tell my friends and family with kids?

Get yourself into the top 10%. As fast as possible. Here’s my list:

1. Do not take anything for granted.

2. Abandon old-world concepts of deserving things, or being owed things.

3. Don’t rely on a degree or certification to carry you (but degrees are still good to have for the foreseeable future)

4. Assume any employer is looking to replace you, at all times, and at any moment

5. Become as self-sufficient as possible in terms of income streams, skillsets, etc.

6. Learn AI to the point of having it be a natural part of you. Make it like reading or speaking or writing. A necessary professional skill. Integrate it into your life.

7. Think of yourself not as an employee, but as a named character. A PC vs. an NPC. A force. A brand. An asset. With a website. A portfolio. A mission. Goals. A narrative. A list of references. And demonstrable skills that everyone is in need of.

I can’t guarantee this will keep you safe in the world that’s coming, but I can promise it’ll help you stay on top for as long as possible.

More to follow in other member posts.