Daniel Miessler

Two Statistics That Make Me Think Trump Will Win Again

May 26, 2023

spidey sense

I’ve been saying for a few months now that I think Trump will win again.

I’ve become less convinced of that as he got COVID and proceeded to unravel in front of the planet, but with one day to go I think his chances are high again.

To me it comes down to one idea backed by two statistics:

IDEA: Mathematical models are based on assumptions, and it’s hard to get the assumptions right in 2020. Or, put differently, people are unpredictable. And this is even more true right now in the middle of a Black Swan event.

STATISTICS: And then there are these two statistics that give me further indication that the polling showing Biden way ahead is wrong.

  1. 56% of Americans say they’re better off today than four years ago. And this was a poll done in September, not March. More
  2. 62% of Americans say they don’t feel comfortable talking about their political beliefs. More

Not only do 62% say they don’t want to share their beliefs, but the numbers are heavily skewed towards conservatives being the ones that are afraid. It’s the liberals that feel comfortable sharing their beliefs!

not comfortable

I’m not a polling expert the way Nate Silver is, and I can only hope he has this type of data incorporated in his model. But I have to admit that I doubt it.

Talking with my liberal friends I feel the exact same disconnection with mainstream America as we saw in 2016. I feel hubris. I feel overconfidence.

And when I see that most people think they’re better off than four years ago, and most conservatives are afraid to share their opinions, it tells me that the polling data is likely skewed left. Maybe more than in 2016.

Again, I could be wrong. Maybe Biden really will win in a landslide.

But my Spidey Sense tells me no. What I think is more likely to happen is that Biden wins, and maybe even by a lot, but that Trump has way more of a showing than people anticipated by the polls.

Notes ​

  1. Nov 3, 2020 (1:56AM) — If I had to guess, I’d put a Biden Landslide at 60%, Biden by a small amount at 40%, Trump Landslide at 40%, and Trump by a small amount at 40%. And yes, I know those don’t add up to 100. It’s 2020 so those numbers are allowed.