China is Private Equity for the World
I feel like China is becoming Private Equity for countries and continents.
Basically, watch the world decay and sweep in for the rescue. As the economy moves away from labor and more towards capital, and more businesses go under, China will be there to buy everything up.
No need for a war. The US and the rest of the world will simply dry up and disappear. Not because there was some aggressive bidding war or anything, but because people just gave up and died off.
Like my friend Kundi told me in the late 90s, China is the cow slowly chewing the grass watching the tiger get in fights and burn through all its energy and die. The cow just waits patiently to take the entire pasture.
In this frame, the world is not in competition with China; it's in competition with itself and time due to a lack of self-belief.
That's really the thing. China knows who they are. They have a strategy. And they believe.
Meanwhile, half the US thinks it shouldn't exist. And that's exactly how it shows up.
So China, being the only stable entity left, becomes the default.
Europe isn't innovating? Well, I guess we'll go with China.
The US has become unpredictable? Well, I guess we'll go with China.
All the businesses closed in all these shopping centers in the US? Well, I guess we'll have 748 Chinese restaurants.
Nobody is hiring me in the US after I finished my Ph.D? Well, I guess I'll work for a Chinese company.
This is a brilliant strategy by China, and when I look at politics and global affairs, zoomed out, this is what I see.
This is also why I don't think they're overly worried about the subprime problem or the fact that they're cooking the economic books or whatever.
It's a race. If you become the default option to the vast majority of the world, you end up with everything. And at that point, you can fix whatever trickery allowed you to get to that point.
And China winning at AI and drones will only accelerate all of this. Especially AI.
The West better wake up soon.
Notes
I've read like twenty books on China over the last 15 years, but I'm not anywhere close to being a China expert. It could be that they're extremely close to collapse. I just know our problems better than theirs, and as someone who served in the Military and sees the West as a net-good, this is all very troubling to me. So take 30% spin off the top due to emotion.
I blame the West (England) for this in multiple ways. Not just because we're refusing to fight for ourselves now, but because we made China this strong through humiliation. Between the Opium Wars and Japan's behavior afterwards, China found an unstoppable identity of "never again", and they are now carrying it out.
Times Higher Education: China Produces More AI Research Than US, UK and EU Combined: In 2024, China's AI publication output matched the combined output of the US, UK, and EU while capturing over 40% of global citations. China has 30,000 active AI researchers—the world's largest talent pool. The top five producers of AI research papers globally are all Chinese institutions, led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
PBS NewsHour: Who's Behind Chinese Takeover of World's Biggest Pork Producer: In 2013, Chinese company Shuanghui bought Smithfield Foods for $4.7 billion—paying a 30% premium over market value. It was the largest Chinese acquisition of a U.S. company at the time, giving China control of 26% of U.S. pork production. The pattern: sweep in and buy distressed or undervalued Western assets.
CFR: China's Massive Belt and Road Initiative: 147 countries—two-thirds of the world's population—have signed on. China has spent approximately $1 trillion, with projected spending reaching $8 trillion. When Western institutions impose conditions or walk away, China becomes the default option.
Foreign Policy: Why Europe Is Losing the Tech Race: U.S. R&D spending was $886 billion vs. EU's $382 billion in 2022. Europe's productivity has grown at just 0.7% annually since 2015—far behind both the U.S. and China. Europe isn't innovating, so the world is going with China.
European Commission: The Draghi Report on EU Competitiveness: Mario Draghi's 2024 report warned that Europe faces "slowing productivity, demographic challenges, rising energy costs, and increased global competition" and can no longer rely on factors that supported growth in the past. Chinese competition is "becoming acute, driven by a powerful combination of subsidies, innovation and scale."
Stanford SCCEI: Reverse Brain Drain Among Chinese Scientists in the U.S.: After the U.S. China Initiative launched in 2018, departures of Chinese-origin scientists increased by 75%, with two-thirds relocating to China. By 2021, over 1,000 life scientists alone left the U.S. in a single year. Nobody hiring you after your Ph.D.? Work for a Chinese company.
South China Morning Post: Abandoning the US—Top Chinese Scientists Return Home: An ongoing series documenting prominent researchers leaving American institutions for China—mathematicians from University of Washington, cancer researchers from University of Chicago, statisticians from Harvard moving to Tsinghua. The talent is flowing to whoever will take them.
GlobeNewswire: Connected Commercial Drones Report 2025: China's DJI holds 70% of the global drone market. The only major U.S. competitor, Skydio, exited the consumer market entirely in 2023. China winning at drones will only accelerate all of this.
Gallup: American Pride Slips to New Low: Only 58% of Americans say they are "extremely" or "very" proud to be American—a record low. Among Democrats, just 36% express strong pride, while 59% of Gen Z lack strong national pride. Additionally, 54% rate the state of U.S. moral values as "poor." Half the country isn't fighting for something they don't believe in.
Pew Research Center: Views of the US in 24 Nations: US favorability fell in 19 of 24 countries surveyed from 2024 to 2025. Major drops: Mexico -32 points (to 29%), Sweden -28 points (to 19%), Canada -20 points (to 34%—now equal to China's favorability). Only 49% of surveyed nations view the US favorably. Unpredictability has consequences.
AIL Level 1: Daniel wrote the essay. I (Kai, his DA) helped with research and sourcing. Learn more about AIL