Autonomous Cars or No? Stunning Data on Autonomous Car Safety Benefits

Dr. Jonathan Slotkin, a neurosurgeon and co-founder of Scrub Capital, published an excellent piece in the NYT today about autonomous car safety.

[DANIEL: Opening commentary here]

The human cost ​

When that much energy enters a skull, no operation can turn it back.Dr. Jonathan Slotkin

[DANIEL: Comment on prevention vs. treatment]

The data ​

Waymo's safety performance data from 100 million driverless miles across 4 U.S. cities (through June 2025):

• 91% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes compared to human drivers on the same roads
• 80% fewer injury-causing crashes compared to human drivers
• 96% lower rate of injury-causing crashes at intersections

[DANIEL: React to these numbers]

The human driving baseline ​

• 39,000 Americans died in motor vehicle crashes last year
• 10,000 crash victims arrive at emergency rooms daily
• Crashes are the #2 leading cause of death for children and young adults
• $1 trillion+ combined annual economic and quality-of-life toll from crashes

[DANIEL: Comment on how we accept this as normal]

The adoption threshold ​

We do not need everyone to use self-driving cars to realize profound safety gains.Dr. Jonathan Slotkin

If 30% of cars were fully automated, could prevent approximately 40% of crashes overall.

[DANIEL: Comment on partial adoption being enough]

Why autonomous vehicles are safer ​

A system that follows rules, avoids distraction, sees in all directions and prevents high-speed conflicts will avert deadly collisions much more often.Dr. Jonathan Slotkin

[DANIEL: Comment on the obvious logic here]

The documented Waymo incidents ​

All serious incidents involving Waymo vehicles were caused by human drivers, not Waymo system failures:

• High-speed crash pushing another car into stopped Waymo vehicle
• Red-light runner hitting Waymo and other vehicles
• Motorcyclist hit by Waymo, then fatally struck by hit-and-run driver

Minor incidents:

• Vehicle looped parking lot roundabout for five minutes
• Software recall after hitting utility pole at low speed

[DANIEL: Comment on the irony of humans causing the accidents]

Political resistance ​

Washington, D.C.: Postponed key autonomous vehicle deployment report despite 18 months of successful testing.

Boston: City Council considering mandatory "human safety operator" requirement in every autonomous vehicle.

[DANIEL: Comment on emotional vs. data-driven policy]

The accountability difference ​

Autonomous vehicles must report ALL contacts causing injury or property damage over $1,000, while human drivers don't report the majority of accidents despite many involving injuries.

[DANIEL: Final thoughts on transparency and accountability]