AGI Prediction Update (2025-2028)

I said, I think in 2023, that we’d have AGI between 2025 and 2028, with 2027 being the most likely year.

I still say 2027 for an AI product that can replace an average knowledge worker. And I think that’s the definition of AGI to use.Daniel Miessler on X (June 2025)

The whole debate is very strange because so much depends on definitions, but I think we got AGI this year. In 2026. In the form of Claude Tag.

Why do I consider that AGI?

Because it’s persistent, organizational memory that can read anything and do anything inside the company. It can read all your emails, process all your meetings, write your documentation, keep your docs updated. It can do decent security assessments.

But most importantly to my definition of being able to replace an average knowledge worker, you can simply tell it to figure out what Chris has been doing for the last year and a half since we hired him.

And it can just go look at every single thing he’s done. Every meeting. Every email. Every Slack message. Every call. Every interaction with a customer. Etc. And it can give you a report. Yeah, he sends this many emails, he does this many meetings. He ships this much code. He writes this many reports. Whatever.

And if he’s what I said….an AVERAGE knowledge worker, which is like someone who does data analysis or business analysis or writes code or whatever, Claude Tag will simply say,

“Hey, would you like me to do all that stuff Chris is doing?”

And you’re like, what do you mean? Like today? Like write one of his reports? Or write the code that he’s working on today?

And it’ll be like,

“No. I mean all of it. I can just schedule myself to do that analysis. To write those reports. To update that documentation. To build that application. I can do it way better than his output in 1/1,000th the time. And I’ll never be late.”

“Oh, and if you’d like, I can do this same thing for your entire team of 79 people. Would you like me to do that?”

I hate to tell the people who want to quibble about definitions, but that’s fucking AGI.

There will be misses. Chris or someone else getting replaced will be better at one or more of the tasks that the AI took over. Even for average workers who aren’t in the category of really caring about their job. And for top performers it’ll be much harder to replace them because so much will be hard to articulate and replicate.

But even if Claude Tag hit some significant percentage of not-great workers (very often because the company and management is not great, btw, not because they CAN’T be great), that will still be a lot of layoffs and/or hiring fewer people back after attrition.

That’s AGI. And just because not everyone is using Claude Tag or other products that can do this doesn’t mean AGI didn’t happen. It just means it’s only started, and hasn’t spread very much yet. It will spread. Fast in some places. Slower in others. But it will spread.

The other killer feature of Claude Tag is that it’s not an AI app. You’re not using “AI”. You’re just doing @Claude and asking for things to happen. And they do. You’re not tabbing out to go to the ChatGPT or Claude app to do something. You just stay right in the center of your life, which is Slack (or Teams) or whatever.

And no, I’m not sponsored by Anthropic or Claude Tag. But damn, that’d be a hell of a sponsored post wouldn’t it?

Anyway, yeah. AGI already happened; it’s just not—as they say—evenly distributed.