This doesn’t bode well. Here’s an interesting list of predictions from the study:
- The main drivers of religious affiliation to 2043 are immigration and secularization. However, fertility matters more in the long term.
- Muslims will outnumber Jews by approximately 2020
- Jews, white Catholics and liberal Protestants will decline
- Protestants will decline from a majority in 2003 to 40 percent by 2043; Catholics may outnumber Protestants by mid-century
- The non-religious will increase their share of the white population but not of the total population
- Secularization will plateau by 2043 and will reverse thereafter.
Happily, I think there are other variables at play here that will improve the odds of secular expansion–the most important of which will be technologies that raise intelligence. ::