There’s a conspiracy theory out there that anyone talking about Bernie having no chance, based purely on math, is buying into the Clinton / BigCorp propaganda encouraging people to give up on him.
I didn’t know whether to believe this or not, until now.
Turns out, it’s not a conspiracy; it’s just reality. Bernie can’t really win.
It’s not that he’s not kicking butt. He is. If he had this much support early on he’d likely be the leader. But it’s just too late. Clinton is too far ahead.
Here’s Nate Silver, of Fivethirtyeight.
To reach a pledged delegate majority, Sanders will have to win most of the delegates from those big states. A major loss in any of them could be fatal to his chances. He could afford to lose one or two of them narrowly, but then he’d need to make up ground elsewhere — he’d probably have to win California by double digits, for example.
So here’s my analysis and predictions:
- The only way Clinton loses is if she gets indicted on the email stuff and is prohibited from running, which I don’t even know is possible
- Basically, if she wins any big state by any significant amount, which is extremely likely, or even just wins most by a little bit, she gets to the required delegates
- So, Clinton is the Democrat
- If she deteriorates more, or gets indicted after becoming the nominee, she’ll continue to erode the amount of support she has from Democrats. Bernie supports dislike her greatly, and it just gets worse the more we hear about her dodging debates, being a Wall Street puppet, etc. And an indictment on the email thing won’t help that
- Trump is the GOP candidate. He’ll fall apart before the general election, but it’ll be after he’s already the nominee
- So we might very well have two candidates that everyone absolutely hates, because by then Clinton will be known as almost criminal, and basically a corporate shill. And Trump will be seen as what we always knew he was–an idiotic reality TV star
- This would make the election a complete shit show, with very low voter turnout, i.e., Clinton is a sellout and stands for nothing, and Trump is a clown having a good time
But there’s a twist.
If there are any major terrorism events in or after September, Trump will downshift and become a clear favorite.
Not with Democrats, of course, but he’ll re-invigorate his Republican base who will suddenly forget (again) that he’s a buffoon.
‘Merica and all.
If that happens, Trump wins by 15% in a vote of pure fear. If that doesn’t happen, Clinton wins by 5% in a vote of pure apathy.
Those are my current thoughts. Subject to change of course, but I think I’ll leave this text as-is so I can chart my perceptions over time.