The GOP is in turmoil because they realize everyone who is truly different from Obama is insane (Paul, Gingrich, Santorum), and the only person who can win is pretty much the same as Obama (Romney).
Obama looks much like a moderate Republican running as a democrat, and Romney appears much like a conservative Democrat running as a Republican. This makes everyone angry.
My prediction is that Romney will be the locked-in candidate by February or March.
Paul will be completely out of the running as soon as the media, and common-sense analysts everywhere, get a chance to see how impractical his platform actually is. Eliminating the federal income tax. Abolishing the department of education. Eliminate welfare. Let the poor and weak fend for themselves (i.e. rely on charity). Withdrawal from the world. Evolution is an unproven theory. Let the market take it’s course.
This is abject idiocy. If we withdrawal from the world, our enemies will simply swoop in and grab control. Our problems will magnify many times over. Get out of the wars, sure. Stop sending trillions to places where it’s not doing any good, sure. But to completely stop “meddling” in the world’s affairs is flat out negligent.
On the home front, eliminating centralized control over certain standards is phenomenally stupid as well. If you don’t support evolution as proven fact then many states will stop teaching it as such, and creationism and religion will take hold in our schools. States will do things like legalize marriage at 13, legalize discrimination against groups of people (Paul wants to repeal the Civil Rights act).
And once corporations aren’t restrained by regulation, there will be all sorts of new drugs and foods and products on the market that will be extremely dangerous to us. People will use them, and they will die. Paul’s answer? We don’t protect people from themselves. Really? What are seatbelt laws? What are warnings on medicine bottles? He says we can sue the big corporations if they create something dangerous.
Really? Like we did against big tobacco? The only reason they aren’t selling addictive poison to our children right this second on television is because of the government. This would be magnified 100-fold if we let “the market” decide and we removed all government restrictions on what corporations could do to create and sell their products. Caveat Emptor? What a complete idiot. We don’t allow billionaire corporations to corrupt, misinform, and poison the majority of our population in the name of greed and money because they happen to be stupid enough to let it happen.
That is not o.k. It’s not noble. It’s not “getting back to our roots”. It’s not anything other than ignorant and immoral. You want a reason why it’s wrong to be Libertarian? Simple: nature isn’t fair. If you’re a puffer fish or a wolf, sure — I forgive you for slaughtering the weak and powerless. But as a human you should damn well know better. It is our responsibility to improve ourselves, not to piss on the less fortunate in the name of nature worship.
In short, Paul is one of the most awesome and exciting politicians I’ve ever seen, and I respect his integrity and his conviction. But he’s fundamentally ignorant of the effects his policies would have on the world, and this is caused by the same thing that causes him to call evolution “just a theory” and to desire a federal law banning abortion — he’s extremely religious.
As such, he’s completely inflexible and unable to see errors in his positions. He’s 100% convinced he’s right, and he’ll carry out his plan regardless of consequences. It’s ignorant, and it’s dangerous. Thankfully, this will soon become painfully obvious to everyone who’s paying attention, and that’ll be the end of his aspirations for President.
Romney is the Republican candidate.
Obama will continue to check boxes for the next couple months, after which he’ll start putting together a breathtaking success narrative. People who hear him, and his supporters, talking about all that he’s accomplished in his first term will find it quite difficult to disagree. Not because of eloquence, but because of sheer content.
Some of his accomplishments will be negative to some people, i.e. more rights for gays, the end of don’t-ask-don’t-tell, the attempts to raise taxes on the super-rich, getting out of Iraq — etc. Other accomplishments will be clear victories to everyone, like the killing of Bin Laden and a dozen other extremely high profile terrorists.
In the end though, after hearing his case for him being an effective leader, very few will disagree with him (even for moderate Republicans). If he’s smart, he’ll compare his accomplishments with those of Reagan, and you’ll find that they’re extremely similar. Dismantling nukes, raising taxes, etc. The middle will move towards him.
Why? Because Romney is very much like Obama (used to be for abortion and passed universal healthcare in his state), only he’s almost 70 and isn’t currently the president.
Obama will win handily, with about a 15% margin. That’s my prediction.
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