Prediction: Windows Vista Will Fizzle

I want to go on record as saying that I think Windows Vista (the next version) is going to be a huge dissapointment. That’s not to say it’s going to suck, because I don’t think XP sucks, but I don’t think it’s going to live up to expectations by any stretch of the imagination.

I am not a Windows hater. I think XP is a solid OS, and if it weren’t for a couple of issues I’d actually rather use it than Linux on the desktop (gasp). But the more I read about Vista the more I’m starting to think Microsoft is horribly unhappy with the release. I get the feeling they’re in a quiet panic over how poorly they know it’s going to be received.

So many features have been stripped from it, many of which were what made the release cool in the first place. Not only that, but they’re late to the game. From what I’ve seen (which admittedly isn’t that much), Vista looks like a really nice looking version of XP. I like the transparency stuff — it’s nifty — but revolutionary? No. Enough to compete with OS X? Not even a little bit.

Again, I could be wrong…maybe it’ll have some really interesting stuff in it, and if it does I’ll be the first to mention it. I just think that in order to impress me — or anyone for that matter — they’re going to have to do a lot more than transparent skins and tabs in IE. That stuff is all played out and was so a year ago.

I will, of course, be buying a copy to play with despite my reservations. A major release from Microsoft is something for any IT professional to be familiar with regardless of what their preferences or preconceptions are.

For the record, I hope it does well and suprises me. If that were to happen it’d just put more pressure on Apple and the various Linux desktop camps. That pressure results in net gain for us as consumers, which is what I’m ultimately looking for.